so we are looking at inventory being 1/2.5 to 1/3 from peak levels. most of the reasons are already touched on by prior comments. but just looking at my neck of the woods of roughly 50 homes in my tract. there’s 2 homes currently for sale. there are 2 homes that want to sell but can not. there are 2 additional homes that really should have been foreclosed on but due to “manipulation factors” the nonpaying owners are still squatting in them.
so in my little world the inventory is 2, but it really should be 6. that means current inventory is 1/3 of what it could be. match up pretty well with current county-wide inventory pattern.
so there you have it, remove 1/3 of would be sellers by “manipulation via government or banks,” then remove 1/3 of would be sellers due to “seller holding strategy,” you are left with inventory that is 1/3 less than max potential.
the end result is home prices will stay flat for probably a decade. because every time the price appear to increase, that 2/3 of “manipulated and held inventory” will try to test the market and the uptick in price would get hammered down as a flat line once again. and we’ll just keep doing this until that “manipulated and held inventory” eventually get gradually taken care of.
