RE: “In other words, do we really need to worry about a scenario where prices go up, but not our paychecks?
What could cause this, and has it ever happened?”

It’s happening now, at least to those in my circle. We haven’t had a raise at my work in three years. We were talking last week, about how a couple of years ago we could afford to go out to lunch a couple of times a week and a happy hour or two a month. Not now. Some/ all mentioned we are even cutting back on other expenses and still don’t have the extra money. So yes it’s happening now. I definitly don’t have the extra cash like I used to. Looking to buy a house now just to save money.
ha! “their” plan is working!