BG, we actually agree on something, that retirees will not be heading to downtown SD. I took stabs at the places they go because those are places in the past they have gone, but you actually are in that boat so you see where the current trends are. However, downtown SD or downtowns of big cities are not the usual spots, even though sdrealtor cited some exceptions. There will always be exceptions, but I was speaking more to a trend on such a scale as to affect an entire market like the original article alluded to. I’m only 43, yet after 21 years with the same employer, I seem to reguarly attend retirement parties these days since some of them were working for 10 years or more when I first met them. They seem to either stay put, or pack up and head for less dense areas. Places that have lower taxes on their retirement, lower costs and in many cases, cheaper real estate. It is not uncommon for them to unload the family home and pay cash elsewhere with their equity. Lots of them seem to like land, deserts or mountains. Not one moved to a place considered “urban.”
To answer brians statement, my kids will likely do what I did and do what most people do. They grow up in suburbs, go to college away from home, live in a cool city, find someone to marry, make babies and then move back to the suburbs. It’s not 100%, but it’s the most common scenario.
To answer BG’s question about where they are coming from and who are they. Most are people who lived in cities, had a baby, and away they go, to get away from people and live amongst the others like them. Some are retirees that didn’t want to leave the state because of grandkids and such, but wanted to lower their costs and commuting wasn’t an issue. The many golf courses, wineries and casino were draws (older ladies dig the slots, old dudes love the golf, everyone likes wine). But it’s mostly young families. The influx is actually having a great affect, I bought at the end of 2008 and because it was a thrashed repo I ended up going FHA 5% down so I could hold back my cash to fix it up. Also cause I read too much piggington and was affraid we’d be on spam and ammo by now. Yesterday I got my appraisal back for the refi I’m doing. I’m up 30% during the worst housing crisis of the century, not only did I lower my rate, without paying anything, my LTV is about 70% now so I just got a conventional fixed and no PMI, and believe me they are picky and it is a fair appraisal if not on the low side of the comps.
Regarding the jobs moving to urban areas, there are many studies and evidence to the contrary. large employers are trending away from the cities, to the suburbs, where their employees can live better, for less and raise families. Nor LA mentioned Valencia, that is where movie and television studios have been moving as well as a number of other industries, because their employees don’t want to live in the city and it’s cheaper and more expandible to chase the employees that the reverse.
lastly, brian, you are basing a lot of prognostications on your limited journey. Stop for just a minute and listen to those who have more in their rear view mirror to look at. I actually grew up in Los Angeles’ version of temecula, I grew up in valencia. After college in a city, living in a city, once a kid was on the way, I went looking for my valencia. May parents moved there when it was under 30k people. Everyone else followed them and they eventually left after we were raised on gone and made a killing. I moved to temecula when it was the same thing, 30k people and saw the exact same thing start to happen. When Mrs. Brian comes along and brian jr. is on the way, send me an e-mail and I’ll help you out picking the next one.
Oh wait I had one more comment, brian mentioned friends. You will see, as your friends marry off and have babies, they will leave you for suburbs, when you get to your suburb, you’ll actually make better friends. I’, only a few years away from having to live here for my kids and when the day comes when i can I move, I’m not sure i will. The reason is because duing 20 years I’ve made friends that aren’t just people I have a few cocktails with, but they are people that I have shared raising kids with, been through ups and downs with, in all aspects of life. Through relatives dying, illnesses, financial hardship and financial success. I talk to them all the time and see them at least weekly. It’s not one or two, it’s dozens, suburbanites are an alien race to you, but we are a close tribe. I’m not sure I can ever leave them, so I can walk to art galleries, they are almost family.
