Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year.

That’s a suckers wager any way you cut it. This mess has been a decade in the making and who knows how long it will take to unwind. You’ll get better odds in Vegas.

I’m in “there is big risk of a large credit collapse” camp and the most I’ll offer is that we should have a good idea of the extent of the damage by the end of next year. By then the worst of the ARM-bombs will have gone off and lending standards should be tightened up.

The big question is, can our economy survive a national real-estate slump intact?