I don’t know what your models are saying, Chris

[bsrsharma]

anxvariety,

Can you please explain your post in simpler English for those of us not versed in options vernacular. I am intrigued by that 2700%. What the heck is that?

[bsrsharma]

anxvariety,

Can you please explain your post in simpler English for those of us not versed in options vernacular. I am intrigued by that 2700%. What the heck is that?

[kewp]

Let’s be realistic, you can throw away all the formulas and models right now. We are in the midst of an unprecedented institutional crash in the lending and housing industries.

I’ll have to concur.

I value CS’s contributions, but his overall tone and demeanor really reminds me all the the tech ‘entrepreneurs’ I knew back in my dot-bomb heydays. When people are willing to spray free money at you from a fire hose, it doesn’t really matter what your formulas, models or business plan is. You are gonna look like a genius in the short term.

Once that spigot is turned off, however, its a different story.

[kewp]

Let’s be realistic, you can throw away all the formulas and models right now. We are in the midst of an unprecedented institutional crash in the lending and housing industries.

I’ll have to concur.

I value CS’s contributions, but his overall tone and demeanor really reminds me all the the tech ‘entrepreneurs’ I knew back in my dot-bomb heydays. When people are willing to spray free money at you from a fire hose, it doesn’t really matter what your formulas, models or business plan is. You are gonna look like a genius in the short term.

Once that spigot is turned off, however, its a different story.

[what_a_disasta]

I guess the markets are fairly level at the time of writing. They are at the same value there were back in May, even though there has been a bit of a sell off the last week or so. They have a long old way to drop before its really significant compared to the huge gains of the last 12 months. Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year. Anyone care to re-time powaysellers mistimed 700’s prediction?

[what_a_disasta]

I guess the markets are fairly level at the time of writing. They are at the same value there were back in May, even though there has been a bit of a sell off the last week or so. They have a long old way to drop before its really significant compared to the huge gains of the last 12 months. Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year. Anyone care to re-time powaysellers mistimed 700’s prediction?

[kewp]

Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year.

That’s a suckers wager any way you cut it. This mess has been a decade in the making and who knows how long it will take to unwind. You’ll get better odds in Vegas.

I’m in “there is big risk of a large credit collapse” camp and the most I’ll offer is that we should have a good idea of the extent of the damage by the end of next year. By then the worst of the ARM-bombs will have gone off and lending standards should be tightened up.

The big question is, can our economy survive a national real-estate slump intact?

[kewp]

Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year.

That’s a suckers wager any way you cut it. This mess has been a decade in the making and who knows how long it will take to unwind. You’ll get better odds in Vegas.

I’m in “there is big risk of a large credit collapse” camp and the most I’ll offer is that we should have a good idea of the extent of the damage by the end of next year. By then the worst of the ARM-bombs will have gone off and lending standards should be tightened up.

The big question is, can our economy survive a national real-estate slump intact?

[HereWeGo]

Maybe an even bigger question, one that I wish at least one bear would have asked a month ago, is what effect will the derating of the American mortgagee have on the financial markets?

That’s the question that’s currently being answered, although I’m somewhat foggy as to implications beyond the current upheaval.

[HereWeGo]

Maybe an even bigger question, one that I wish at least one bear would have asked a month ago, is what effect will the derating of the American mortgagee have on the financial markets?

That’s the question that’s currently being answered, although I’m somewhat foggy as to implications beyond the current upheaval.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All this market volatility is great to see again. The last 2-3 years were too boring.
As for prognostication of sorts I would not be surprised to see a 10-20% market correction within a year or less. But I am not betting on it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All this market volatility is great to see again. The last 2-3 years were too boring.
As for prognostication of sorts I would not be surprised to see a 10-20% market correction within a year or less. But I am not betting on it.

[kewp]

I’ll also suggest another biggie is whats going to happen to all the 401k’s and pensions of retiree’s. My dad already got dinged by his Lucent retirement package (cut healthcare benefits), so it wouldn’t surprise me if it turns out the pension manager went long on the MBS’ market and he gets dinged again.

If this happens to enough folks with a market turning sour we can expect a run on 401k’s next.

[kewp]

I’ll also suggest another biggie is whats going to happen to all the 401k’s and pensions of retiree’s. My dad already got dinged by his Lucent retirement package (cut healthcare benefits), so it wouldn’t surprise me if it turns out the pension manager went long on the MBS’ market and he gets dinged again.

If this happens to enough folks with a market turning sour we can expect a run on 401k’s next.

[bsrsharma]

I don’t know what is wrong with the Lucent folks. A guy I worked with was working in Lucent and they invested all his 401(k) in Lucent stock. He lost it all when LU melted down. (I was a ‘value investor’ on the downward slide – bought into the Bell Labs sheen – and got creamed)

[Author]

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