I don’t think it is to challenging to predict the curve will never look like the bubble curve. That is why it was a bubble. I think paying attention to national stats and prognostications is interesting but can be misleading for a San Diego shopper.

I am still sticking to a couple rational thoughts.

1 – I will not even look at national trends if I am concerned with San Diego real estate.

2 – Within San Diego I know that variances between regions are substantial. (Wake me up when the medians in Carmel Valley = El Cajon)

3 – The demand in many of the regions with good school districts and more desired areas is substantial.

4 – That the govt and the banks have effectively been able to manipulate the market by controlling inventory flow.

5 – That IMO prices will be strongly driven by interest rates. This will take awhile but may be able to be the pile driver that breaks the gridlock.

6 – That depreciation will vary in different price strata.