Compiled housing price survey

[biggoldbear]

Interesting “long” term prediction of US housing prices. Looks about right to me, I’d guess San Diego has both greater upside and downside potential. It’s interesting to see current prices compared to pre-bubble trend are down quite a bit.

http://www.macromarkets.com/recent_news/press_releases/2011/20110322_housing-survey.pdf

[CA renter]

From the link:

“In December, only 15% of our
panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just
three months later, almost 50% foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects
national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.”
—————

Do they think the “recovery” will take us back to bubble levels? When they talk about home prices recovering “to the pre-bubble trend,” are they talking about the trend that *includes* the price movements in the 2001-2008 period? If so, I think they are looking at things the wrong way. They need to look at the trend up until 2001, and extrapolate from there. Then, they need to take into account what’s been happeing to job stability, and prices of healthcare, energy, food, etc. to determine what people are willing and able to pay for housing going forward.

[CA renter]

From the link:

“In December, only 15% of our
panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just
three months later, almost 50% foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects
national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.”
—————

Do they think the “recovery” will take us back to bubble levels? When they talk about home prices recovering “to the pre-bubble trend,” are they talking about the trend that *includes* the price movements in the 2001-2008 period? If so, I think they are looking at things the wrong way. They need to look at the trend up until 2001, and extrapolate from there. Then, they need to take into account what’s been happeing to job stability, and prices of healthcare, energy, food, etc. to determine what people are willing and able to pay for housing going forward.

[CA renter]

From the link:

“In December, only 15% of our
panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just
three months later, almost 50% foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects
national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.”
—————

Do they think the “recovery” will take us back to bubble levels? When they talk about home prices recovering “to the pre-bubble trend,” are they talking about the trend that *includes* the price movements in the 2001-2008 period? If so, I think they are looking at things the wrong way. They need to look at the trend up until 2001, and extrapolate from there. Then, they need to take into account what’s been happeing to job stability, and prices of healthcare, energy, food, etc. to determine what people are willing and able to pay for housing going forward.

[CA renter]

From the link:

“In December, only 15% of our
panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just
three months later, almost 50% foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects
national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.”
—————

Do they think the “recovery” will take us back to bubble levels? When they talk about home prices recovering “to the pre-bubble trend,” are they talking about the trend that *includes* the price movements in the 2001-2008 period? If so, I think they are looking at things the wrong way. They need to look at the trend up until 2001, and extrapolate from there. Then, they need to take into account what’s been happeing to job stability, and prices of healthcare, energy, food, etc. to determine what people are willing and able to pay for housing going forward.

[CA renter]

From the link:

“In December, only 15% of our
panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just
three months later, almost 50% foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects
national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.”
—————

Do they think the “recovery” will take us back to bubble levels? When they talk about home prices recovering “to the pre-bubble trend,” are they talking about the trend that *includes* the price movements in the 2001-2008 period? If so, I think they are looking at things the wrong way. They need to look at the trend up until 2001, and extrapolate from there. Then, they need to take into account what’s been happeing to job stability, and prices of healthcare, energy, food, etc. to determine what people are willing and able to pay for housing going forward.

[sdrealtor]

The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..

[sdrealtor]

The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..

[sdrealtor]

The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..

[sdrealtor]

The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..

[sdrealtor]

The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]

Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]

Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]

Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]

Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.

[Author]

Posts