Just for kicks, I looked through all the sales for May 2007 in Oceanside’s zips.

92054 (which includes the beach areas) had 45 sales, of which 8 were foreclosures and 1 probate.

92056 (s/east) had 39 sales, of which 5 were foreclosures and 1 was a probate sale.

92057 (n/east, including the back gate Pendleton area) had 56 sales, 4 of which were foreclosures, 5 were advertised as short sales, 2 relocations, and 2 probate sales.

Based on these numbers, the ratio of forced sales to total sales for 92054 was 22%; for 92056 it was 15%, for 92057 it was 23%, and the average for Oceanside altogether was 20%.

By the way, the sale prices on the foreclosures represented loan losses (not counting holding costs and transaction costs) averaging about $100,000 or so, almost regardless of price. There were a couple foeclosures where it appears the lender might have actually come out ahead (!!), but $75,000 and $125,000 losses were almost as common as the $100,000 losses.

As I’ve said before, I think when these must-sell properties comprise 30% or so of the market they will run it and it will be every man for himself.