The two big questions over the next 18 months are:

(1) Does housing decline by 10% (not a big deal) or by 20%+ (bigger deal)?
(2) Does GDP decline by 1% (not a big deal) or 2.5%+ (bigger deal)?

I don’t see how housing doesn’t decline from where it is (although probably not below the trough established last year), nor do I see how the economy grows much at all over the next 18 months. But, we’ll see…