One point you missed. If some consumers have more money because they arent paying their mortgages and will have less to spend even if they get loan mods you need to factor in all the additional consumer spending that has been freed up among non-distressed homeowners who took advantage of lower interest rates. Lots of folks got 0% car loans and refinanced 6% mortgages down into the 4.5 to 5% range. Dont know whether it balances things out but it is not an insignificant driver in this economy.