23109, a lot of what you say is correct and many San Diegans have an opinion of Temecula that dates back a decade. I don’t have a negative opinion but I believe in the 50% drop. Not accross the board and not every house, but there will be examples and I want to find the example before Waiting Hawk does.

Here’s why the 50% drop will happen. In 1998 and 1999 the homes that were selling for 175 to 230 were not small houses and those same houses peaked in 2005 in the high 600’s to the high 700’s.

This is a model match of one my parents bought in 1999 for 213k (thier lot was better), today the match is listed for 690k

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=600000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=700000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=18695933

This is a model match of a house I bought in 1998 for 187k inclusive of options and lot premium, that model started at 165 in 1998. Things were taking off that year, it was the official bottom in the area and as they built the street I lived on, there was an increase of 5-10% per phase, I bought it when it was a dirt lot and was up 25% by the time I moved in. Zillow doesn’t show the 1998 sales prices but it is not a legend, ten years ago, almost no list price in this valley had a 2 at the beginning of the number. I sold last year. Today a model match is listed at 609k, in 2005/2006 at 600k it would have sold in a week, some may have sold in the 700’s

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=600000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=6&maxprice=700000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=16702098

This is not the undesirable part of Temecula, these are both in Redhawk.

So to look at these two houses which sold for just under and just above 200k, to see them both rise to the 600’s is about tripling the price in 8/9 years. For them to fall to 350k would reflect a 50% drop from peak but still have gained more than 5% per year. Both those properties are hanging on to near peak prices but there are examples in the same development of 100-150k drops. There is one a few houses away from the 609k (he’s on his third realtor I believe) that is listed at 500k and has been on the market forever, soon it will list in the 400’s and we will be within striking range of 350k, voila, 50%