You’re not going to find anything in CV at 2001 prices. Not now, not ever. Carmel Valley single family homes, at best (lowest), are at late 2003 levels. Which are a solid 50% higher than 2001 prices. While real values in CV have a slight chance of dropping 50% at some point, nominal prices will never approach 2001 levels.

I think that a lot of buyer demand has been moved earlier by the fed gov’t handouts, which will make it relatively hard for sellers to find buyers for a while now that they’ve ended. You’ve now got the state handout, which may help things for a while, but apparently the money for that won’t last long.

I’d give prices a twenty percent chance of coming down 10%. Odds are they won’t drop even that much, if they drop at all.