I notice a "pattern" about the posters at Piggington.

1. Those who are knowledgeable about real estate. These people generally assert that there will be a major price correction. And this correction will be slow, so patience is the key. Most importantly, these people base their outlook on their knowledge & understanding. 2. Those who don't know much about real estate or are still in the process of learning more about RE. These people base their outlook on their "FEELING" (which is to be expected, if you don't have the knowledge, all you have is your GUT FEELING). Sorry to say this, Alex_angel belongs to the latter group. Knowledge is power ! Keep studying 🙂

 

Actually, I've noticed quite a few "patterns" here.

 

1. Some folks who are knowledgeable about real estate. These folks usually tell what they are seeing now, with data to back it up. Some who make educated guesses into the future.

 

2. Some folks who seem like disgruntled folks that band behind people type #1 like sheep, probably because they are pissed off at the affordability of homes and  want to hear things that's along the line of their frustration. 

3. Variants of type #2 that act like type #1's…These folks typically post 1-2 or maybe 3 homes that appear to have lost 100-200k in value, pop open the wine, celebrate about the idiot buyer who now is going to lose his shirt, only to be corrected by a type #1 person that looks up the MLS listing/etc and quote the actual number(s) and/or condition of sale.

4. Variants of type #2 that attack contrarian opinions that "express things might not be that as a 40-50% correction," and pin labels on people that make these opinions like "dumb buyer at peak prices that are disillusioned that they aren't going to get their a**es handed to him". "people that are dumb buying homes at such prices because it doesn't make sense.", when in reality some(not all) of these folks don't really need to worry about things if their primary home declines 40-50% because (1) they can afford the primary home (2) don't view the primary home as an "investment", but instead satisfy some material feeling that he/she may possess (3) actually makes decent financial decisions elsewhere to satisfy such material posessions.

5. Variants of #2 who can't afford homes because these spend their hard earn money on other crap and/or who drive nicer cars than their boss ( I know a few of these folks).

 

5. People that really are disillusioned into thinking that home prices aren't going to fall at all, and really are in a state of denial.

6. People who don't like to here negative things about they home that they just bought and will say anything to make themselves feel better.

 

7. Idiots like me who

a)like to read what people #1 post

b)find everyone else entertaining

c)speak whatever the hell on my mind with no data to back anything up, often act like #2-#6

d)frankly don't really care if real-estate falls 20-50% because there's no point in dwelling on when it happens, and because we're busy spending time looking for other investments to make their money grow while real estate is suppose to fall in the next 2-5 years.

e)hoping that both real estate prices will fall AND mortgage rates rise sharp and fast to double digits (10-13%) to effectively lock out a good portion of potential first home buyers during this downturn so that they can be my potential tenants for homes that I'll buy during this period.

For example,

Currently: 30year fixed @6% with 20% down on an $800k = $3,837.12/month

Ideally, I hope this home would fall to $500k, but at the same time a 30year fixed loan would sharply rise to 12% or

$3300/month.

..effectively still making homes unattainable for enough people so that they can be my renter.