My Bloomberg quote was original. Haven’t read anyone else saying that oldtimers have refinanced their equity out, even prime foreclosure rate will be high, that foreclosures are lagging, that housing prices will fall 50%, that housing prices depend on supply and demand, that population decline is continuing and leading to lower demand, credit crunch would lower housing demand (as is happening now), 8% of all homes on MLS are short sales, housing prices are not dropping because the stupid buyers are bidding on the same few good homes, and much much more. None of the previous have been written anywhere else.

jg, foreclosures and recessions are lagging indicators. NODs released by RealtyTrac now, are for NODs recorded in February, which are for payments not made in November, December, and January. So the guy not paying his mortgage since November is only now getting noted as having an NOD. Credit Suisse report from last week noted the 1 year lag from no payment to REO! So your regression analysis, which is exactly like the regression analysis I did in 1988 as part of my MBA work in Phoenix is very good, but not as good as supply and demand. I hope that someday your religion will bring you inner peace. Your comments, full of hostility toward me (what have I ever done to you??), show that church alone cannot bring fulfillment.