Stonebridge has enjoyed appreciation just like most other similar neighborhoods over this past year. I feel that once the govt empties the bag of tricks and has to actually let the market run unsubsidized then Stonebridge will suffer once again. Hard to say when that will be. Of course interest rates are the wild card. So if you have a year or two for wait time, then you could see Stonebridge depreciation.

Your constraint about being built after Y2K will severely limit your selections. You are pretty much going to be in Stonebridge, 4S Ranch, La Costa Valley, Carmel Valley.

As far as distressed sales, absolutely they will continue. However the problem you are facing is the stock of buyers pretty much looking for exactly what you are searching for. Lots and lots of employed engineers who have a couple hundred k in the bank and maybe they make between 100-200k in annual salary. They are looking for exactly what you declined. What you need is for them to get the homes and drop out of the pool. Alternately you need more and more of these properties to go belly up.

I believe they will and you will have opportunities in the price range you stated. I have already seen them out there. They go quick but they are there. More will come.

You just need to know the risk of depreciation in the future. Also others will argue the entire banking system and real estate market will crater. That could be true but that is something you need to reconcile for yourself.