[quote=temeculaguy]Nor, that isn’t a far fetched prediction, in fact I think it will happen sooner as opposed to later. I’ll go 2012, that will be the start of the next cycle and it will take time for builders to catch up. 2009 will be crappy, 2010 will show signs of life and by 2011 we will be seeing electric cars and be out of all the wars (I predit apple makes the icar in 2011), the good times will roll again in 2012 and there wont have been much construction between now and then. This country will pull out of the global recession before other countries do and more people will come here (legally and illegally), and the whole thing starts all over again. Maybe it won’t be 2012 or 2016 but cycles always repeat themselves, we wont make the subprime mistake again but we will make new mistakes. hopefully we will piggies will have learned from the past and position ourselves well in the next bubble, wherever that may be.[/quote]

TG, I agree with you and I am going to throw some numbers out. Some calculation shows that we will experience the tight supply again in year 2015 because the population growth in CA alone (notice that this time around nobody really moved out of CA?) However, if you believe Bruce Norris’ theory, the biggest wildcard in home price appreciation is migration. Sooner or later someone will realize while they are paying $200K for an older, smaller house anywhere around the country, they can pay $280K for a newer, larger house in a town like Temecula in California, or $250K in Murrieta, or even in $150K in Sun City (pun intended). Although I know that the rest of country probably do not like Californian that much, but you got to love the California sunshine. Due to the higher income tax here in CA, it will primarily attract all the retirees who need to pay almost no income tax, but who would value a good weather.