What I really meant to say was unemployment peaks towards the end of the recession, not recovers. And even that is not quite right.

It appears to peak at the end or after the end of the recession, so I stand corrected.

Here’s a good graph:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/R-uijJYooOI/AAAAAAAACso/C2hTWISYHWE/s1600-h/jc032708initurate1967.JPG

So, if this guy says meaningful recovery won’t happen until 2011, that means the unemployment peak could be any time in 2010.

I’m thinking the recession will last 30 months, to end in June 2010.