I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.