I believe that we will see variances in regional markets become more substantial then I had ever anticipated. To me we could see temporal variations in the “bottoms” that could span a year or two or maybe more.
I would concur with a post by sdr in another thread that certain neighborhoods are showing a more stable behavior. Mira Mesa is an excellent example for certain types of detached homes. I am not saying this neighborhood is bottoming by any means but I do feel a hell of alot more risk is bled out of there then say Carmel Valley.
The upcoming wave of unemployment will deal a harsher blow to the more desireable areas if the tech (both bio and non bio) sector is hit hard here. Following the hangover from that, as an economic recovery does take hold, (assuming one does take hold) then inflation will kick in and rates will run. This will serve to further supress pricing. Those who have saved cash will do well. However those that did not save cash or used cash reserves because they were out of work will indeed be screwed because even with low pricing they will not be able to scrape a downpayment together. As interest rates do run up we will see a reduction in the money supply and a tight credit market to combat inflation.
In all as dude said, perhaps we have a lost decade perhaps we do not. Hard to envision a bottom and then a runup… I see alot of flatness once we do hit bottom.