[quote=partypup]More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. [/quote]

There are three measures of youth participation:

– Total Number of Votes
– The Turnout Rate: percentage of eligible young voters who cast a ballot.
– The Share of the Electorate: percentage of entire voting electorate.

“According to the Florida voter file, (which should be viewed as relatively but not 100% accurate) in 2004, approximately 392,888 voters between 18-35 voted early or absentee. So far 499,867 voters between 18-35 have voted early or absentee this year. This is a 27 percent increase over 2004.”

Your quote is based on the turnout rate.

My quote is based on the total number of votes.

Each, as of right now, is telling a different story. Believe the one you want to believe.