This is why I think median price is pretty useless in term of the current situation. Like many have said, median price is a lagging indicator. Lets say you’re buying a house and you figured you can buy a 500k house. The house that was 500k last year is now 450k and the house 550k last year is 500k, would you buy a 450k house or would you still buy a 500k house? I’m pretty sure most will still buy that 500k house. That’s one of the reason why median doesn’t really tell you the whole story. Also, if you have less people buying in the low end compare to last year and more people buying in the high end, even if price drop 30-40% in real term, median price can still be going up.

If you take one data point of 1% drop, then I would say no, that’s not a trend. But if you take data from the last 10 years, showing y-o-y price going up at double digit and the last year, y-o-y price winding down to 0 and last month being the first negative y-o-y, I think that’s a pretty good trend right there. If you don’t think that’s the trend that it’s moving back to the historical moving average, then can you give me an example of an asset class where it move well beyond its moving average and does not return back to the moving average? Be it short sharp drop or long slow drop eroded by inflation.