Interesting observations and analysis. However, I think that the RE market does not exist in it’s own universe. The overall economy plays and huge and dynamic role in the condition of the RE market. Rising unemployment is going to really kill it. IMO.
(I’d be curious to know how South Park and North Park are holding up?)
If you follow Mr. Mortgage, then you will see a huge number of larger dollar loans coming into the foreclosure arena. My thesis is that these loans are in the more coveted areas like RB, 4S, etc…
An economic contraction usually hits the low-end first because they’re often already financially stressed and have little back-up reserve. As this contraction persists, it starts to effect wealthier people that have been holding-out for the recovery that has not yet arrived.
One of the realtor’s on this site brought up the concept of seeing who’s behind on their property tax payments as in indicator of financial stress. I believe this may be better than NOD’s from lenders because I think it’s public record and not subject to the crap that lenders are pulling right now in a sorry effort to save themselves.
Anyone have feedback on this?
On areas changing:It has been my experience that a recession has the opposite effect of gentrification. That is, bad areas get worse and areas that were getting gentrified start going south fast as the recession continues.
