condo’s always fall first because they are less desireable. builders will always cut prices first because they can’t afford standing inventories of spec homes AND they have no emotional attachment to these homes.

The sellers of the traditional SFR in general have lived and raised their families there. There is a lot of pride in ownership and competition with neighbors. “If our home went for less than the Jones’, that must mean our home wasn’t kept as nicely, or my latest home improvement project wasn’t quiet as good as Bob’s.”

Therefore, condo’s and new homes lead the way in the fall, and the SFR prices are dragged down with the seller kicking and screaming.