Id had this whole long post ready for this when you first posted, then my boss’s boss came in with the equilivant of a nucular bomb for my project and droped it on me. Anyways, I closed the window on accident and lost it all. I am lazy, and not gonna retype the whole thing, so here is the gyst.

1) There will always be demand for houses in good neighborhoods with good schools that are close to work. Assuming you are in one, you are correct that your location will help you.

2) The hits taken in MM are for older, smaller, SFR’s on small lots in buisy locations. Those have fallen by 25% or more. Your area has fallen about 10-12% (your numbers), but is also nowhere near a bottom. Hoping for only a 6% drop or so is pie in the sky. If I had to guess, 26% is prob closer to reality, putting your values back to what they were in nominal terms in 2003.

3) Job losses are accelarating, Interest rates are ~6.5, banks are lending even less and still cutting, inflation is higher than in a long time and accelerating, REO’s at unheard of levels, wages are stagnent, Middle class population dynamics are negative (pop outflow). It’ll be alot longer than 1 year before things start to get to the point where a house that hasnt hit bottom yet can start to appreciate.