all real estate is local, where are you looking? Are you selling? If you are moving up in the same area your risk is diminished either way the market goes. If you already sold and are trying to time the market, that can be very difficult. I only ask because 1.2 mil is a bit high for first time buyers.

Not all areas have recovered to their peaks but most have, however it’s been a decade so 30-50% is normal for 10-11 years at 3% to 5% a year. The last bubble was driven by liar loans and novice speculators without capital, I do not believe that is what is going on now. Depending on where it is, looking for a 10% nominal drop can be unrealistic, flat pricing is more realistic. Right now wages are rising but housing rose faster, since housing needs buyers sometimes it stalls out or is flat until buyers can catch up. Move up housing needs buyers to be able to sell in order to buy, so when the entry level struggles, it can trickle up.

I can tell you that when the great recession hit nd prices fell, they didn’t fall at the same percentages and at the same time. It hit harder and faster from the outside in, from the newer areas to the older and it barely touched some housing types and areas. The North Coastal areas of SD were almost immune and the inland exurbs saw 50% reductions, everything else seemed to fall in between.

The one thing that can shock the r/e market failed to materialize, if it comes back and somehow passes (SB 50) it will boost supply and probably hurt prices, but it’s not likely to affect the 7 figure market, just the lower end. That bill allows density increases and will take the zoning power away from city councils and planning commissions when planned housing is near transit stops. It would make it cheaper and easier to build apartments and condos. Older SFR neighborhoods could become a mix of craftsman’s next to 5 story apartment complexes with no parking requirements. I’m not sure it will ever pass or in what form but it would shake up the market in certain areas, but not this year.

Nice to see you HLS, many don’t know your expertise but it more than most here. Let’s just say I’m a fan. What do you think will happen, high appreciation, track inflation, normal 3% increases, stagnation or nominal decline? My theory is that liar loans and zero down neg am was the bane of the last cycle. Since you are closer to the pulse what is your prediction? I’m torn between “track inflation” or historical “normal” growth.

The thing with price drops is it comes with “BAD” economic news etc….

It takes guts to pull the trigger when the sky is falling.

Just my two cents.

[quote=serendipity4]While all that you say is true, I have heard feedback from parents that your peers and the parent volunteering at the school makes a lot of difference too. If my kid wants to form a group at his school for an olympiad or FLL (lego league), but does not have peers interested in the same or parents who are interested or knowledgeable to volunteer in those areas, then my son will be pulled down too as a result. Those are the kinds of things I am looking at. Considering that parent involvement is going to be there as a given, we are conflicted between 4s vs CV. More of the activities he is going to be involved in are closer to 4s. We prefer hotter weather vs coastal clouds all year and we are getting a better sqft, bigger backyard, his friends etc in 4s and hence slightly leaning towards that vs CV.[/quote]

Let me give you a different perspective.

My kid went to CarmelV. She had a lot friends (family and otherwise) that went to 4S and RB. Regardless of which school it was… Tiger parents that cared tended to gravitate toward other tiger parents that cared. And those that didn’t, didn’t.

If you plan on being heavily involved, like I was, it wont matter really which school you go to in 4S or CarmelV because both schools have plenty of parents that care.

The thing that imho a lot of people in CarmelV are in denial with is that Carmel Valley schools really aren’t any better or worse than any other good performing school that you can find all over San Diego. It’s the parental involvement that saves the day. And that same league of parents is found in other areas too..

Specifically when it comes to math and science, you will be disappointed severely if you are counting on the public schools to teach/instruct/offer anything exceptional, and not be involved yourself or know someone that is involved…

In the DMUSD, anything that is STEAM+ (science , technology, art, music) etc is all funded by voluntary contributions by parents in the district, roughly $800 donations per year per kid…and depending on the school, not everyone contributes (especially the public schools that are closer proximity to the concentration of apartment complexes that never donate). And that is shared across all students equally regardless of what parents contribute…. While that’s how it should be in the public schools, clearly you aren’t going to get the same level personalized instructions for your kid as you would, say if you spent that money specifically for your kid… I’m just being brutally honest about this… (For the record, my total contributions to the district each year was closer to 4x-5x the suggested amount, time, money, and goods donated)…. This year, DMSEF foundation had a budget shortfall…(Ok, they didn’t really have a shortfall. They wanted to pay for a “course curriculum consultant” to design new STEAM+ courses for the district that was expensive…and the amount of donations raised was on parity to the previous years…So to pay of that consultant, they had to cut teaching staff. Out of all the teachers they could have cut, they cut the science teacher… And at one of the best schools in the area… Sage Canyon…. (keep in mind, that most kids run around, and participate in things like soccer, basketball, softball,etc outside of school) why the DMSEF cut out science, when the entire program is suppose to emphasize science and math is beyond me. )

Regarding things like FLL….Again, be sure you understand what an FLL team at say a public school is for, versus say a private FLL team that you or someone forms…

If your kid really is a STEMs superstar (mine isn’t, btw ) and your kid is programming left and right like there is no tomorrow, you probably want him/her to be on a competitive team so he can make it to the regionals, right? If so, you are better of either forming your own team or finding a private team outside of school.. Most FLL teams that are really good are not formed sanctioned by the public school district with school funds, the exception being charter schools…
The competitive teams come out of private schools like Bishop school, or Cambridge school, and charter schools like Sundance, which make it to the regionals and finals all the time.

In Carmel Valley, 2 years ago, there was only 1 elementary school in the district that was officially sponsored for FLL (maybe it was 2 schools), that one school had 6-8 teams.. The teams were designed to help raise awareness to FLL,STEMS, robotics, with the goal to get kids interested that otherwise would not be, never about making it to the regionals/finals” as some tiger parents dream of… Think of this as soccer. You have competitive “Sharks Soccer” league, and you have “AYSO anyone can play leagues”… The FLL teams at the school were the later category….Which again doesn’t seem to fit your high achieving kid you describe.

It’s extremely difficult to make it to the regional competition, because of the diverse student body in knowledge, skillset, and interest, and the philosophy at the school (which I agree with) is to emphasize teaching/learning than actually winning the competition…Hence just like AYSO soccer, everyone “plays” with more or less equal play time even if the skill level is all different. For the past 12 years at my kid’s former school, none of the 6-8 teams made it to the regionals…The exception was the last year my kid was there, when both of the two all girls team made it to the regionals that 2-3 moms and I coached….That took A LOT of work from parents. So again, I think you need to be realistic in what you expect out of a public school….It’s not a magic pill.. Behind every winning team or winning student at every competition, whether it’s FLL, Academic Decathalon, Science Field Day, Nolan Math Competition, Rubik Cube, etc… There’s always a set of dedicated parents that made it happen, and that’s found at any school.

[quote=barnaby33]flu, you could have shortened that whole story to, “you can’t pay someone else to deal with your problems.” Educating your kid is your problem!
Josh[/quote]

Now that BG is gone, someone has to write a long paragraph that no one really reads to continue the tradition.

A better comparison should have been comparing the number or lizards and walls in stucco boxes in far flung Carmel Valley versus lizards and walls in stucco boxes in far flung 4S…..

[quote=flu]Now that BG is gone, someone has to write a long paragraph that no one really reads to continue the tradition.

A better comparison should have been comparing the number or lizards and walls in stucco boxes in far flung Carmel Valley versus lizards and walls in stucco boxes in far flung 4S…..[/quote]My area win the lizard and walls award, hands down. It’s not even a competition.