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  • December 4, 2012 at 4:41 PM #20341
    carlsbadworker
    Participant

    We see plenty of signs in the overall market that change is coming:

    • Wake-up call: the builders we’re talking to now are promising a January 1 price increase.
    • Spring thaw: we told would-be sellers this year to wait for higher prices. No one will say that in 2013, which will be the first year in seven starting with a broad consensus that prices will rise. After 18 months of fewer and fewer homes for sale, the trend will reverse.
    • Move-up buyers: when people can sell their home, they can buy a bigger one. After five years of a market led by first-time buyers, demand will shift up-market, particularly now that government financing for first-time buyers is at risk.
    • Move-down buyers: boomers who spent the last five years in an empty nest will finally sell.
    • Jumping the bridge: more buyers are looking across the tracks because prices are rising.
    • Exurbs: after years of small, in-city projects, builders are moving back to the edge of town, having run out of any other land to buy.
    • Flips: more folks are putting money into homes before selling. Architect billings are at a two-year high.
    • Foreclosures: will only spike if the U.S. starts taxing forgiven mortgage debt in January. Without a tax-break extension, any time a bank forgives debt, the homeowner pays the tax on it. Most owners will just wait for a foreclosure instead. This is a bigger threat to U.S. housing than the mortgage interest deduction.
    • Lower fees: as fear dissipates, commissions will decline, after rising 8% since 2005. And it’s about time: half a billion dollars has been invested in real estate technology since then.
    • Irrational exuberance: some folks will bet on a bigger recovery than the market can bear. Things will keep getting better, but not like 2005.

    And if mortgage interest rates show any signs of rising near the end of the year, the market is going to freak out, like kids at a birthday bash that ran out of cake.

    We’ve forgotten what it feels like to pay 5%.

    December 4, 2012 at 7:23 PM #755759
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote]
    We’ve forgotten what it feels like to pay 5%.
    [/quote]

    aint gonna happen in the short-middle term.
    fed already guaranteed it.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-expected-to-announce-stimulus-thursday/2012/09/13/38a31be2-fda4-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_story.html

    And maybe folks missed the story QE3 until mid-2015 AT LEAST…

    http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/24/news/economy/goldman-fed-qe3/index.html

    Remember? We talked about it here..

    http://piggington.com/qe3_away

    Your hard tax dollars at work..

    No point in sitting at the sideline anymore…Well there was no point sitting at the sideline for probably the past 1.5 years. Rent money… meet trash can.

    December 4, 2012 at 7:38 PM #755764
    moneymaker
    Participant

    I’d say if you bought in the last 3 1/2 years you will be feeling pretty good in a couple of years.

    December 4, 2012 at 8:13 PM #755765
    scaredyclassic
    Participant

    i feel good right now. squatting 220. no aches or pains.

    December 4, 2012 at 8:47 PM #755766
    NotCranky
    Participant

    [quote=squat250]i feel good right now. squatting 220. no aches or pains.[/quote]
    Just curious, are we talking quads parallel to the ground, deep squats, or somewhere in between?

    December 4, 2012 at 9:09 PM #755767
    NotCranky
    Participant

    Even Jamul has finally gone up, quarter over quarter.

    December 5, 2012 at 7:16 AM #755778
    scaredyclassic
    Participant

    we are talking theoretically strict parallels, with occcasional failures to reach exact parallel due to moments of fear. I always warm up withass-to-ground lightweight dumbbell squats, and then just the bar with slow progression, and progress forward, so i can remember and feel what real parallel feels like. By the end I am usually dizzy so I am either doing something very right or very wrong.

    December 5, 2012 at 7:17 AM #755779
    scaredyclassic
    Participant

    2013 predictions include a single rep 300 lb squat, a 400 lb deadlift, and also I am going to stop calling people “dude” so much.

    December 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM #755782
    all
    Participant

    [quote=carlsbadworker]
    Flips: more folks are putting money into homes before selling. Architect billings are at a two-year high.
    [/quote]

    I just finished with a remodel/addition. The price of lumber went up over 20% between May and September and everyone (plumber, roofer, painter, drywall hanger) is saying they have not been this busy since 2006-2007. A painter who did some work in September returned my calls after few days just to tell me that he would not have time for me until after the end of the year.

    December 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM #755783
    NotCranky
    Participant

    Good routine. No pain? I guess it’s time to move up.
    I understand about the fear and I sometimes use a bar on vertical slide rails with down limits set.

    Have you seen the charts where you can extrapolate your current max based on number of reps accomplished at at a good effort with known weights? Those can be useful.

    December 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM #755784
    Jazzman
    Participant

    “Spring thaw: we told would-be sellers this year to wait for higher prices. No one will say that in 2013, which will be the first year in seven starting with a broad consensus that prices will rise. After 18 months of fewer and fewer homes for sale, the trend will reverse.”

    WTF does this mean? Higher prices in 2013, not higher prices in 2013, higher prices in 2013, not higher prices in 2013. Crystal ball got a little foggy here.

    December 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM #755786
    all
    Participant

    [quote=Blogstar]
    I understand about the fear and I sometimes use a bar on vertical slide rails with down limits set. [/quote]

    Smith machine can be bad for you
    http://stronglifts.com/smith-machine-squats-power-rack-free-weights/

    December 5, 2012 at 11:39 AM #755787
    NotCranky
    Participant

    [quote=craptcha][quote=Blogstar]
    I understand about the fear and I sometimes use a bar on vertical slide rails with down limits set. [/quote]

    Smith machine can be bad for you
    http://stronglifts.com/smith-machine-squats-power-rack-free-weights/%5B/quote%5D

    Yeah, I know about that. I do both types and I am not a power lifter. I cross train and am actually squatting to correct more important muscle imbalances, and for increased, not maximum strength.

    What I like about the smith machine:
    I can focus way better on protecting my weak link knee than with free. Spotter doesn’t help with that. I can focus on my foot plant instead of worrying about the weights as much. The benefit of good heel plant and protecting my knee for a stagger at the wrong time out weighs all other things for me. All this allows me to go into a deeper range of motion which in theory can be taken back to the free weight station after adaptation on the safer Smith, for better gains in quality and quantity.

    Even at the serious weight training level there are professionals who support the machine with caveats. I am cognizant of the probability of self righteousness having plenty to do with bashing it. Anyway, to each their own.

    December 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM #755788
    scaredyclassic
    Participant

    I oppose the smith machine because it feels way less manly

    December 5, 2012 at 1:33 PM #755791
    all
    Participant

    I just wanted to share something I read. I’m too girly for squats. I’m going for Y shape and sticking with pull ups/chin ups.

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