jp, I tend to overthink things as well to. With regards to your situation, just keep watching market indicators and when it makes sense for you to buy a house, then buy. If you think that prices will go lower and you won’t be able to handle that, then wait a bit longer until signs indicate the market is stabilizing.
I, along with a lot of others on here don’t think we’re there yet. Are you in some kind of rush? If not, why not sit tight a bit? Like for at least a year. IMO, in this point in time, prices can only go down and that’s not something that’s going to turn around quickly.