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  • May 19, 2009 at 5:10 PM #15726
    Bob
    Participant

    I’ve been saying much of the same thing to anyone who wishes to listen…which is to say that while prices might soon hit bottom at the low end, the mid/upper range still has considerable downward price pressures built into the system. Mr.Mortgage has data which suggests a potentially serious problem ahead for the mid/upper real estate market.

    http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/

    Food for thought on housing: 50% of buyers in the bubble states are first timers buying at the low end of the market, vacating a rental. The majority of the remaining buyers are investors tripping all over themselves trying to get a deal — just like they have done all the way down — in hopes of renting the property to the very same renters (first time buyers) buying the low end properties. DOH!

    Nowhere to be found are move-up buyers at the mid-to-upper end that is experiencing a default crisis identical to the beginning stages of the Subprime crisis with respect to supply/demand fundamentals. As the surge of for-sale listing of mid-to-upper end properties hits for the busy season and the major mid-to-upper end default wave — that began in earnest in Dec — turns into REO supply, an exact repeat of the beginning of the housing crash that began in 2007 with the Subprime sector and its housing supply will occur.

    Most assume that because the low end is stabilizing after a 50%+ price drop that the mid-to-upper is also stabilizing. The fact is they are not connected and will bottom independently. The crisis yet to befall the mid-to-upper end will take its participants — the mid-to-upper end earners — through the same painful housing led de-leveraging as their Subprime counterparts. The macro economy can’t handle the sequels…Subprime Returns, The Son of Subprime and Subprime vs. Alt-Zilla.

    May 19, 2009 at 5:49 PM #402406
    propertysearchaddiction
    Participant

    I completely agree with Mr. Mortgage. Look at the Median Resale PPsqft graph on Piggington. Right now reminds me of 2007. Prices were coming down, people were excited and ready to jump in.
    First the median price went down -10% and then actually went back up to -5% in 2007. I remember thinking people were getting great deals and some great bank owned property. And them BAM! Winter hit and the prices started dropping like a brick. If you look at the graph it drops almost straight down about -15%-20% in 2008.
    I am betting on a 2007 repeat where we have a slight 5% uptick on the curve during the summer selling season and everyone is amazed at the great deals. Then BAM! Fall and winter bring a shock that ppsqft can still continue to drop 10%-15%. I predict the graph will be steep and shocking. We all want it to be over but I think we are far from it.

    http://piggington.com/commentary/housing_market

    May 19, 2009 at 5:49 PM #402658
    propertysearchaddiction
    Participant

    I completely agree with Mr. Mortgage. Look at the Median Resale PPsqft graph on Piggington. Right now reminds me of 2007. Prices were coming down, people were excited and ready to jump in.
    First the median price went down -10% and then actually went back up to -5% in 2007. I remember thinking people were getting great deals and some great bank owned property. And them BAM! Winter hit and the prices started dropping like a brick. If you look at the graph it drops almost straight down about -15%-20% in 2008.
    I am betting on a 2007 repeat where we have a slight 5% uptick on the curve during the summer selling season and everyone is amazed at the great deals. Then BAM! Fall and winter bring a shock that ppsqft can still continue to drop 10%-15%. I predict the graph will be steep and shocking. We all want it to be over but I think we are far from it.

    http://piggington.com/commentary/housing_market

    May 19, 2009 at 5:49 PM #402890
    propertysearchaddiction
    Participant

    I completely agree with Mr. Mortgage. Look at the Median Resale PPsqft graph on Piggington. Right now reminds me of 2007. Prices were coming down, people were excited and ready to jump in.
    First the median price went down -10% and then actually went back up to -5% in 2007. I remember thinking people were getting great deals and some great bank owned property. And them BAM! Winter hit and the prices started dropping like a brick. If you look at the graph it drops almost straight down about -15%-20% in 2008.
    I am betting on a 2007 repeat where we have a slight 5% uptick on the curve during the summer selling season and everyone is amazed at the great deals. Then BAM! Fall and winter bring a shock that ppsqft can still continue to drop 10%-15%. I predict the graph will be steep and shocking. We all want it to be over but I think we are far from it.

    http://piggington.com/commentary/housing_market

    May 19, 2009 at 5:49 PM #402951
    propertysearchaddiction
    Participant

    I completely agree with Mr. Mortgage. Look at the Median Resale PPsqft graph on Piggington. Right now reminds me of 2007. Prices were coming down, people were excited and ready to jump in.
    First the median price went down -10% and then actually went back up to -5% in 2007. I remember thinking people were getting great deals and some great bank owned property. And them BAM! Winter hit and the prices started dropping like a brick. If you look at the graph it drops almost straight down about -15%-20% in 2008.
    I am betting on a 2007 repeat where we have a slight 5% uptick on the curve during the summer selling season and everyone is amazed at the great deals. Then BAM! Fall and winter bring a shock that ppsqft can still continue to drop 10%-15%. I predict the graph will be steep and shocking. We all want it to be over but I think we are far from it.

    http://piggington.com/commentary/housing_market

    May 19, 2009 at 5:49 PM #403099
    propertysearchaddiction
    Participant

    I completely agree with Mr. Mortgage. Look at the Median Resale PPsqft graph on Piggington. Right now reminds me of 2007. Prices were coming down, people were excited and ready to jump in.
    First the median price went down -10% and then actually went back up to -5% in 2007. I remember thinking people were getting great deals and some great bank owned property. And them BAM! Winter hit and the prices started dropping like a brick. If you look at the graph it drops almost straight down about -15%-20% in 2008.
    I am betting on a 2007 repeat where we have a slight 5% uptick on the curve during the summer selling season and everyone is amazed at the great deals. Then BAM! Fall and winter bring a shock that ppsqft can still continue to drop 10%-15%. I predict the graph will be steep and shocking. We all want it to be over but I think we are far from it.

    http://piggington.com/commentary/housing_market

    May 19, 2009 at 6:35 PM #402436
    patb
    Participant

    take the PSF for low end and figure that bounds the PSF for mid range,
    add 20% and thats the high enf.

    high end gets a premiym for size and finish but not much.

    May 19, 2009 at 6:35 PM #402688
    patb
    Participant

    take the PSF for low end and figure that bounds the PSF for mid range,
    add 20% and thats the high enf.

    high end gets a premiym for size and finish but not much.

    May 19, 2009 at 6:35 PM #402920
    patb
    Participant

    take the PSF for low end and figure that bounds the PSF for mid range,
    add 20% and thats the high enf.

    high end gets a premiym for size and finish but not much.

    May 19, 2009 at 6:35 PM #402981
    patb
    Participant

    take the PSF for low end and figure that bounds the PSF for mid range,
    add 20% and thats the high enf.

    high end gets a premiym for size and finish but not much.

    May 19, 2009 at 6:35 PM #403129
    patb
    Participant

    take the PSF for low end and figure that bounds the PSF for mid range,
    add 20% and thats the high enf.

    high end gets a premiym for size and finish but not much.

    May 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM #402421
    5yearwaiter
    Participant

    At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now….

    May 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM #402673
    5yearwaiter
    Participant

    At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now….

    May 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM #402905
    5yearwaiter
    Participant

    At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now….

    May 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM #402966
    5yearwaiter
    Participant

    At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now….

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