San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 8, 2017 - 4:49pm
Another quick one... the developing divergence between 2013 and 2017 has continued. Unlike 2013, when months of inventory rose rapidly off low levels, we've seen inventory rise very non-rapidly in the past few months. It looks more like 2016 now -- but lower.
Despite the scarcity, prices have leveled off:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 16, 2017 - 3:19pm
Hey all, mostly graphs this month but I did want to call out one interesting development. Thus far, this year has been strikingly similar to 2013 in terms of months of inventory. But the pattern seemed to diverge last month -- and not in a way that buyers will like:
We shall see if this disparity continues. If so, it will argue for accelerating prices immediately ahead, notwithstanding the typical fall lull. This chart looks pretty (short-term) price bullish too:
Many more graphs below...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 19, 2017 - 5:53pm
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 10, 2017 - 4:17pm
Home prices drifted further upward in June:
But in some good-ish news for potential buyers, inventory made a bit of a comeback, with months of active inventory increasing from 1.3 to 1.6 months:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 8, 2017 - 6:31pm
To sum up May: inventory rose, but sales rose more, resulting in even lower months-of-inventory. Despite that, single family home prices took a breather. But the price trend is still comfortably "up."
Further interpretation will be left as an exercise for the reader... ;-) Graphs below:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 8, 2017 - 6:51pm
After a pullback in March, prices surged again last month. The price per square foot for single family homes increased by 3.2% in April, bringing the year-to-date increase in that metric to 6.5%.
Here's how those prices look on a chart (note: I mostly ignore condos as they are much more volatile):
The next chart uses the 3-month average of the single family ppsf, to approximate where the Case-Shiller index will go:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 11, 2017 - 4:29pm
In last month's update, we saw an unusually large one-month jump in the price-per-square-foot metric, with single family homes up 4.5%. This month, prices by that measure pulled back by 1.4%, indicating that some of the increase was month-to-month noise. Still, when you combine the two months, it makes for a robust 3.0% increase in February and March together. By comparison, last year the single family ppsf rose by 1.7% over the same period.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 10, 2017 - 9:51am
This really brought me back:
("Just jump in" was a thing a realtor actually said to me back in 05 or so).
It's a full on speculative mania (to resurrect a term I was fond of back in the day). Except this time, the exact same KIND of bubble burst horrifically just 10 years ago.
People just never learn... or, maybe more accurately: they never stop just believing whatever they feel like.
Just thought this would be a fun link for the old timers...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 20, 2017 - 12:09pm
The median price per square foot surged in February:
This level of price increase is in some sense what should be expected given the pretty severe lack of inventory, but to see prices go up so much in a single month is unusual:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 1, 2017 - 12:11pm
I just posted an article at Voice of San Diego which, along with its companion piece, will serve as background to these ongoing valuation updates. Here's what they discuss:
So for starters, check those out if you haven't. The second article in particular might be of interest even to old-timers, as it's the most thorough piece (that I can remember anyway) I've written on the role of mortgage rates.
OK, with that background behind us, let's check in on the data as of year-end 2016. Here is the primary chart... San Diego home valuations:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 23, 2017 - 1:30pm
I'm working on some valuation stuff to be posted soon. Meanwhile, here's a selection of graphs on the January resale data. Take note of that steep decline in months of inventory from this time last year... if that doesn't rectify itself, it's a sign of higher prices immediately ahead.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 25, 2017 - 4:41pm
Here's the final score for the year 2016:
Looking at the single family number, which gives the best read, prices increased a couple % more than inflation, and roughly the same as wage and rent growth. As one would expect in a given year, all things being equal.
This time they're not equal in that valuations began the year at an elevated level. However, as discussed in the afore-linked article, perhaps valuations can remain higher than usual while interest rates remain lower than usual.
Back to the monthly data, prices did pull back, but that's reasonable at this time of year:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 11, 2016 - 5:54pm
Months of inventory crept up a bit, but still made for the lowest November in recent years:
The 3-month average of prices crept up as well:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2016 - 9:11pm
Just a quick update on the September data. Here's an overview:
Inventory remained very tight, with months of inventory easily at the lowest level in the past four years:
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