Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 | By Mr. Mortgage

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/07/4-7-ca-foreclosures-about-to-soar/

Foreclosures About to Soar Near-Term — Easily Back to All-Time Highs

Are you ready to see the future? Ten’s of thousands of foreclosures are only 1-5 months away from hitting that will take total foreclosure counts back to all-time highs. This will flood an already beaten-bloody real estate market with even more supply just in time for the Spring/Summer home selling season – great timing!

For months prior to March, banks/servicers were on and off of foreclosure moratoria with many on a complete hold awaiting Pres. Obama’s plan to save the housing market and homeowners. We track each foreclosure start through the entire foreclosure process individually and in aggregate — also by originator and servicer — and as soon as the Obama plan was made known, banks/servicers shifted their Notice-of-Default and Notice-of-Trustee Sale machines into overdrive.

Foreclosure start (NOD) and Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are going out at levels not seen since mid 2008. Once an NTS goes out, the property is taken to the courthouse and auctioned within 21-45 days.

NOTE – actual March foreclosures reported next week by the popular foreclosure services like RealtyTrac will show a sizable drop vs. Feb because foreclosures lag notices. Foreclosures in March are a result of NTS’s when many banks/servicers were on hold in Jan/Feb. But in March NTS’s surged — I will have a preliminary report out this week on the total statewide and national counts. BE CAREFUL – the popular reports released next week will also show a large increase in total foreclosure notices so total foreclosure activity may be relatively flat. Market reaction will be dependent upon how this is reported in the press.

The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that can’t be stopped without a national moratorium — this wave is so big I would not put it past them trying it.

CA foreclosure background – in mid-2008 the foreclosure wave was building was artificially held back as a result of the CA law SB1137 enacted in Sept 2008. This also kept NOD’s and NTS’s at much lower levels than the actual defaults that were occurring. Other bubble states and several banks/servicers also went on random moratoria and the foreclosure wave was held back for the past six months. But just like so many other intervention and moratoria in the past, the problem just comes out the other side even more violent than if they would have done nothing. Adding insult to injury, the GSE’s announced this week that they were coming off moratorium, which could increase foreclosures by 20-25% alone.