The 10-year treasury has historically mean reverted to 250 bps real return and about a 300 bps inflation premium. (So, it’s averaged about 5.5% over the last 80 years.) The current on-the-run 10-year TIPS are yielding about 1.50% while the current 10-year nominal yield is about 3.80%. So, the market is pricing in that 10-year treasury buyers will be perfectly happy for the next 10 years with (1) a 1.50% real return, and assuming that (2) inflation will average 2.30% annually over the period. Neither of these seem like particularly good bets. But it could be a while before the prices mean revert.