DWCAP good posts. By the way I agree that CV will continue to depreciate. No argument there at all. How much? I am not sure, maybe down to 2001 pricing. Will a home like this go for 750k? Not in my opinion. The 25k number I used was from a post Bugs made for the totals. As for the timing, spring always has the larger number of closing as it is always a seasonal high point for activity. We will see where 2008 heads out to. I expect the volume in 08 to be below 07 by perhaps as much as 10-15% but I could be wrong. The option arm wave to me, will not start to swamp the market until 2009 and beyond by the looks of the chart. 2008 will continue to cope with the subprimers going down. The option arm wave worries me alot on two fronts. Yes it can really hurt the market much more then the subprime but it is also filled with more qualified homeowners who have the ability to float with the tide if some entity provided relief in the form of a 5 year freeze on the rates.
Again, I have no clue about if/when buyers will ever dry up at all. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe never. Demand has ABSOLUTELY gone way down which is great but even 25k sales in 07 still surprises me.
Just on this board, to say I am astounded by how many people post that they want to live in Temecula or Murrieta is a huge eye opener to me. I am not an elitist or anything of the sort but I had no idea of the demand for that area.
Similarly if banks continue to carve pricings out there at the present rate, those homes will pencil out sooner, much sooner then 2010-2012 and they will get purchased by savvy investors.
I think that masses are somewhat driven by the talking heads but not as many as we think. This is the point where in my opinion, income level starts to take effect. Those making more money tend to listen to the heads less then those making less. That sounds snobbish but I find it to be true.
Personally I find the assessment you make to be pretty much correct. I tend to think 09 will be worse then 08 but I am certainly not saying 08 will not be worse then 07. I guess we will see. I still think for the home type I want it will be a longer haul into 2010-2012 for a bottom.
