There are so many people who want or need to sell their homes who are still in denial that it will probably take until the end of next summer for despair and/or panic to set in for most of them. My prediction is that most will probably keep their prices too high until around the end of September before reality finally starts to settle in. Of course, NAR & CAR will still be making their inane predictions which will keep hope alive among the truly stupid and naive.

There are so many people who want or need to sell their homes who are still in denial that it will probably take until the end of next summer for despair and/or panic to set in for most of them. My prediction is that most will probably keep their prices too high until around the end of September before reality finally starts to settle in. Of course, NAR & CAR will still be making their inane predictions which will keep hope alive among the truly stupid and naive.

HereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.

I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.

Patient renter in OC

HereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.

I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.

Patient renter in OC

HereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.

I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.

Patient renter in OC

Good question. If we were to have an actual panic it would be in 2008 IMO. When do we hit a critical mass?? The holidays for me this year have been very different regarding relatives reactions to my housing bubble views. Last year they just looked at me weird and talked about it behind my back, now everything is out in the open and they are asking me questions on how this will play out. So we are at an…”OK there was a housing bubble” moment. With that said I don’t think people understand exactly how serious some of these problems are especially surrounding the credit crisis that still shows no sign of abating. I think a catalyst for a panic would be some sort of credit event in the markets ie. a large institution goes belly up, a day when the market can’t open, etc. Now combine that with an election year and all the politicians exploiting the crisis for their own benefit and having this info filter into, The Today Show, Good Morning America, Oprah…etc. You could really see a turning of the herd in the other direction. Once it really sinks in that you can be under water by 150K to 300K+ paying an reset mortgage thats soaking up to 60%+ of your income…….yea you could have a panic.

Good question. If we were to have an actual panic it would be in 2008 IMO. When do we hit a critical mass?? The holidays for me this year have been very different regarding relatives reactions to my housing bubble views. Last year they just looked at me weird and talked about it behind my back, now everything is out in the open and they are asking me questions on how this will play out. So we are at an…”OK there was a housing bubble” moment. With that said I don’t think people understand exactly how serious some of these problems are especially surrounding the credit crisis that still shows no sign of abating. I think a catalyst for a panic would be some sort of credit event in the markets ie. a large institution goes belly up, a day when the market can’t open, etc. Now combine that with an election year and all the politicians exploiting the crisis for their own benefit and having this info filter into, The Today Show, Good Morning America, Oprah…etc. You could really see a turning of the herd in the other direction. Once it really sinks in that you can be under water by 150K to 300K+ paying an reset mortgage thats soaking up to 60%+ of your income…….yea you could have a panic.