One thing that I find intriguing is that whenever I post something, invariably very few people interpret what I am writing in the same manner as I thought they would when I posted it….
I read sdr’s post and I don’t view it as being bullish so I guess you guys would paint me in black and white stripes and label me a bad guy… I view his posts in the same manner as my own, that is, I do not see bullishness or denial of a bull market. Rather the contrary…I also do see the same thing that he has said, that the zip codes here in question are going down and have gone down for awhile now. Have these zips fallen in the same manner or at the same rate as say Eastlake? No… can they? Perhaps. Will it happen in a few weeks time? No it will not.
I also would forecast a spring bump. Not a rally where spring prices exceed last spring prices, but an INCREASE in activity because that is typical of seasonal cycles regardless of the secular trend. To expect otherwise would indeed be illogical. Does it signify a change in direction? Not at all, but my interpretation of sdrs posts didn’t detect that at all. I am not saying a million midwesterners are gonna relocate here or anything like that. I am just saying that overall data ALWAYS SHOWS that there are more sales closed in the months of march, april, may and june then any other months. Back out those timeframes by 30 days (typical escrow length) and that would indicate that if there is anytime of the year that we see increases in homes going into escrow it is in the spring.
It is not a trend reversal nor is it being bullish. It is simply a statement of fact that there are always more closed escrows in the spring then any other time of year.
Why is that interpreted as being a bull? All secular markets have cyclical components last I checked. These increases do not mean a stalling of the depreciation cycle but they may serve to do a small amount of buoying in certain areas. It will fade as we move into summer…
