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October 18, 2007 at 8:56 AM #10662October 18, 2007 at 9:09 AM #898754plexownerParticipant
another factor that may keep real estate prices flat for a long time after the ‘bottom’:
when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation
read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this
~
let’s see – a ‘bottom’ in 2011/2012 and then a full generation before real estate becomes a ‘respectable’ investment again – that takes us to 2030 or so before the next up-cycle in real estate might begin
October 18, 2007 at 9:09 AM #898824plexownerParticipantanother factor that may keep real estate prices flat for a long time after the ‘bottom’:
when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation
read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this
~
let’s see – a ‘bottom’ in 2011/2012 and then a full generation before real estate becomes a ‘respectable’ investment again – that takes us to 2030 or so before the next up-cycle in real estate might begin
October 18, 2007 at 9:52 AM #89883(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantwhen a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation
read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this
That classical literature needs to be updated. Consider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago, yet the percentage of 401Ks invested in equities is near an all time high today. I wouldn’t consider that being shunned for a generation. That is, unless we are talking about a generation in dog years.
October 18, 2007 at 9:52 AM #89890(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantwhen a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation
read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this
That classical literature needs to be updated. Consider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago, yet the percentage of 401Ks invested in equities is near an all time high today. I wouldn’t consider that being shunned for a generation. That is, unless we are talking about a generation in dog years.
October 18, 2007 at 11:05 AM #899044plexownerParticipantthe bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation
I am referring to 9/11 (let it happen or make it happen – take your pick) which kicked off the ‘war on terror’ and its related spending (don’t forget that the markets had already dropped significantly when 9/11 occurred), dropping interest rates to 1% in the US, having Japan flood the world with yen borrowed at almost 0% interest, creating a raft of new financial instruments (derivatives) that nobody really understands, etc
to point to the 2000 bubble as the one example of a mania that doesn’t conform to history would be a little bit premature at this point
I would also mention that, whan priced in gold, the Dow is down about 50% from where it was in 2000 – the sheeple don’t realize this so they think the markets are near all time highs
history books of the future will point to this era as the classic example of a financial mania and its blowoff – hopefully the history books will also be able to write that we finally learned the fiat money lesson and strung all the bankers up from the nearest trees
October 18, 2007 at 11:05 AM #899134plexownerParticipantthe bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation
I am referring to 9/11 (let it happen or make it happen – take your pick) which kicked off the ‘war on terror’ and its related spending (don’t forget that the markets had already dropped significantly when 9/11 occurred), dropping interest rates to 1% in the US, having Japan flood the world with yen borrowed at almost 0% interest, creating a raft of new financial instruments (derivatives) that nobody really understands, etc
to point to the 2000 bubble as the one example of a mania that doesn’t conform to history would be a little bit premature at this point
I would also mention that, whan priced in gold, the Dow is down about 50% from where it was in 2000 – the sheeple don’t realize this so they think the markets are near all time highs
history books of the future will point to this era as the classic example of a financial mania and its blowoff – hopefully the history books will also be able to write that we finally learned the fiat money lesson and strung all the bankers up from the nearest trees
October 18, 2007 at 11:40 AM #89912(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantthe bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation
“should have started” ? Huh? Are you kidding me ?
Did someone miss the worst bear market in a generation ?
The S&P 500 (broad index) declined by about 48% in the ~36 month bear market from March 2000- March 2003.
This is rivaled in the past HALF-CENTURY by one other similar Bear market. A 48% decline in the S&P 500 from January 1973 to December 1974. That was nearly a 24-month bear market.
October 18, 2007 at 11:40 AM #89921(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantthe bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation
“should have started” ? Huh? Are you kidding me ?
Did someone miss the worst bear market in a generation ?
The S&P 500 (broad index) declined by about 48% in the ~36 month bear market from March 2000- March 2003.
This is rivaled in the past HALF-CENTURY by one other similar Bear market. A 48% decline in the S&P 500 from January 1973 to December 1974. That was nearly a 24-month bear market.
October 18, 2007 at 11:42 AM #89923(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantConsider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago
Oops. Correction: 7 years ago.
October 18, 2007 at 11:42 AM #89914(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantConsider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago
Oops. Correction: 7 years ago.
October 18, 2007 at 11:49 AM #899224plexownerParticipantI should have said ‘secular’ bear market in equities which will last for 15 years or so – not 36 months
October 18, 2007 at 11:49 AM #899314plexownerParticipantI should have said ‘secular’ bear market in equities which will last for 15 years or so – not 36 months
October 18, 2007 at 11:50 AM #89920lindismithParticipantOur local lineup is already overloaded with idiots; I’m dreading an onslaught of Boomers paddling out on their softtop longboards to add to the donkey factor.
Anyone here have a perspective on this?
Well at least it’s one less in the line-up if they go under and don’t come up!
Bugs, are you seriously seeing beginning surfers in their 60s????
I’m seeing a lot of women, of all ages. One hit me at Tourmaline about 6 weeks ago. Turns out she was an instructor from Hawaii! I think she was high. And come to think of it, another one I saw recently was a woman in her sixties, snaking groms in the line-up at Pipes. She was more experienced, but still, she didn’t seem to understand basic protocols. She seemed to be operating under a sense of entitlement.
October 18, 2007 at 11:50 AM #89929lindismithParticipantOur local lineup is already overloaded with idiots; I’m dreading an onslaught of Boomers paddling out on their softtop longboards to add to the donkey factor.
Anyone here have a perspective on this?
Well at least it’s one less in the line-up if they go under and don’t come up!
Bugs, are you seriously seeing beginning surfers in their 60s????
I’m seeing a lot of women, of all ages. One hit me at Tourmaline about 6 weeks ago. Turns out she was an instructor from Hawaii! I think she was high. And come to think of it, another one I saw recently was a woman in her sixties, snaking groms in the line-up at Pipes. She was more experienced, but still, she didn’t seem to understand basic protocols. She seemed to be operating under a sense of entitlement.
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