What will happen first

Submitted by moneymaker on August 10, 2017 - 3:26pm
Stock market crash
61% (14 votes)
Major earthquake here in California
13% (3 votes)
Housing crash
0% (0 votes)
Someone somewhere sets off a nuke
22% (5 votes)
Dali lama returns to his country of birth
4% (1 vote)
Total votes: 23
Submitted by moneymaker on August 10, 2017 - 3:27pm.

Perhaps I should have asked "what do you fear might happen?"

Submitted by spdrun on August 10, 2017 - 3:29pm.

Fear or cheer?

Submitted by flu on August 10, 2017 - 3:43pm.

Other option: Trump gets reelected for another 4 years.

Not fearful of it, nor do I care. Life goes on.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 11, 2017 - 8:11am.

Wouldn't the be Dalai Lama returning be a good thing?

Submitted by moneymaker on August 11, 2017 - 9:12pm.

I just thought I'd throw an outlier in. Interestingly nobody has picked the statistically more likely event of a housing crash. Although I don't really remember which came first in 2008, anybody? By crash, I'm going to say a correction of 20% or more.

Submitted by svelte on August 11, 2017 - 10:15pm.

moneymaker wrote:
I just thought I'd throw an outlier in. Interestingly nobody has picked the statistically more likely event of a housing crash. Although I don't really remember which came first in 2008, anybody? By crash, I'm going to say a correction of 20% or more.

Data please showing a 20% correction in housing is more likely than a 20% correction in the stock market.

Submitted by ocrenter on August 12, 2017 - 4:44am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Wouldn't the be Dalai Lama returning be a good thing?

of course. but good things are not happening anytime soon.

Submitted by ocrenter on August 12, 2017 - 4:45am.

moneymaker wrote:
I just thought I'd throw an outlier in. Interestingly nobody has picked the statistically more likely event of a housing crash. Although I don't really remember which came first in 2008, anybody? By crash, I'm going to say a correction of 20% or more.

stock market crash needs to happen first.

Submitted by moneymaker on August 12, 2017 - 9:29am.

Yes ocrenter I believe you are correct as the last crash preceeded official crash by 3 months, although they were really happening simultaneously as they were connected.

Submitted by moneymaker on August 12, 2017 - 9:52am.

svelte sorry I do not have the data - just a gut feeling. P.S.-Buy Ford, down 11% this year. Buy low, sell high!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...
Check out the second paragraph under background. Anything sound familiar?

Submitted by SK in CV on August 12, 2017 - 9:57am.

moneymaker wrote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...
Check out the second paragraph under background. Anything sound familiar?

Nope. Not really.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 12, 2017 - 11:21am.

svelte wrote:
moneymaker wrote:
I just thought I'd throw an outlier in. Interestingly nobody has picked the statistically more likely event of a housing crash. Although I don't really remember which came first in 2008, anybody? By crash, I'm going to say a correction of 20% or more.

Data please showing a 20% correction in housing is more likely than a 20% correction in the stock market.

Stock prices are much more volatile than house prices, so of the two, it's statistically far likelier for stocks to fall 20% (or any %).

Submitted by moneymaker on August 15, 2017 - 8:17pm.

Totally agree Rich, however if/when stocks drop people may sell (dooh that's obviously what will cause the drop) and then will likely invest in real estate. When real estate prices drop I don't see people starting to buy stocks, I see fear. Gold/bonds could also rise but I don't see the smart money going that way. In other words a drop in stock will help real estate but a drop in real estate won't help stocks, in my opinion, of course i could be wrong, but then that would violate rule #1.