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18 years ago

Professor–If you shoot a
Professor–If you shoot a bullet straight up into the air it slows to a stop at the apex before returning to earth. For a very brief moment there is precious little trend data to plot the bullet’s course. That is where we are now. Once the bullet begins its descent the trend data will come very quickly. Gravity always wins.

Okay, I give up. What does exogenous mean? Take it easy on your lowly readers. :-))

18 years ago

But what about that “soft
But what about that “soft landing” I keep hearing all the “experts” talking about???

This soft landing idea, that prices will just hang where they are, not rising or falling, or even rising along with inflation, is riduculous. So prices more than double over the last 5 years for no fundamentally based reason, and we are expected to accept that they will now just revert back to normal appreciation?

In order for the ratio of home prices to incomes to drop by at least 50%, as you state (which I totally agree with), wages will have to grow considerably – and it will probably take 15 to 20 years! I don’t see that happening. We (the U.S.) are increasingly competing with the rest of the world for jobs now. I see our overall standard of living decreasing over time. Here’s my worthless prediction: home prices in San Diego will fall significantly farther to meet wages than wages will rise to meet home prices.