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17 years ago

It might be the “best
It might be the “best available” but it doesn’t tell us what is happening with prices today.

The Case-Shiller index is down a little under 1% year over year as of its last release (Sept 06 vs Sept 05). There is no way that the average San Diego house lost only 1% of its value.

THe median is down 5% year over year (Sept 06 vs Sept 05).

So now the median is showing the decline a little better than Case-Shiller.

I think it comes down to this: housing price trends cannot be condensed into one number.

The median and Case-Shiller index are historically informative, but since they lag by 1-2 years, they do not tell us what is happening today. Just as with the unemployment figure, which tells us about employment trends in the past. It’s lagging. It’s great for historical analysis.

For current real estate trends, we need to evaluate each home within its neighborhood based on current activity, and judge a region by sales and inventory.

16 years ago

Could anybody recommend a
Could anybody recommend a futures broker who trades CME housing futures based on the S&P Case-Shiller index? My discount broker can’t do that.

I am very seriously interested in this, and I would appreciate any feedback on the issue. I know the trading volumes are very low, but I’ve traded in iliquid markets before. And anyways, I’m not planning to open a large position (about 15 contracts, perhaps).

Thanks very much,