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bewildering
6 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Excellent info.
That Rent to

Excellent info.

That Rent to Income ratio graph shocks me the most. Rents seem to be insane at teh moment yet historically are not too bad.

SD investor
SD investor
6 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Hi Rich,
Sounds like things

Hi Rich,

Sounds like things are turning… Could you please share your equation for equal-weighted rent and income used to generate figure 1? Interesting bonus graphs. I think rent is going up 5-6% per year, but I hear wages only go up by 2-3%, but from the 1st bonus graph, it seems like wage is keeping up with rent? Is SD wage going up faster than national average?

XBoxBoy
6 years ago
Reply to  SD investor

SD investor wrote:
I hear

[quote=SD investor]
I hear wages only go up by 2-3%, but from the 1st bonus graph, it seems like wage is keeping up with rent? Is SD wage going up faster than national average?[/quote]

Keep in mind that the mix of jobs in San Diego is slowly changing to have fewer low paying jobs but more high paying jobs. When you hear wages are only going up by 2-3% that’s wage inflation. But in San Diego you not only have wage inflation you have a change in the ratio of high to low paying jobs which makes up the difference.

barnaby33
6 years ago
Reply to  XBoxBoy

XBoxBoy, from where do you
XBoxBoy, from where do you get that idea? I’m not challenging you, but it does seem that San Diego’s largest industries are fairly fixed, as are their respective salary ranges. Military/Education/Tourism.
Josh

XBoxBoy
6 years ago
Reply to  barnaby33

barnaby33 wrote:XBoxBoy, from
[quote=barnaby33]XBoxBoy, from where do you get that idea? I’m not challenging you, but it does seem that San Diego’s largest industries are fairly fixed, as are their respective salary ranges. Military/Education/Tourism.
Josh[/quote]

Josh, sorry I don’t have specific data to present. (I know a cardinal sin for Piggington.) My comments are mostly based on news articles I’ve seen in the last several months. I specifically recall one that was on people moving into or out of San Diego. The group moving out had a much higher percent of people whose incomes were below the median wage and the group moving into San Diego were more likely to have incomes above the median wage. My impression from that article and others is that most of the growth in higher income earners is in the tech services sector.

bewildering
6 years ago
Reply to  barnaby33

barnaby33 wrote:XBoxBoy, from
[quote=barnaby33]XBoxBoy, from where do you get that idea? I’m not challenging you, but it does seem that San Diego’s largest industries are fairly fixed, as are their respective salary ranges. Military/Education/Tourism.
Josh[/quote]

The military pay a fixed amount for rentals. I believe that figure is $2900 for a family at the moment. IMO that figure puts a base level for rent prices.

Teachers/UCSD/SDSU/community college faculty all do pretty well. Especially if you count benefits.

Escoguy
6 years ago
Reply to  bewildering

I have a NATO military tenant
I have a NATO military tenant with an allowance of $3620/month for a SFH in 92027. Multi-year lease with extensions already committed. Regular annual escalation in contract too.

FlyerInHi
FlyerInHi
6 years ago
Reply to  Escoguy

Escoguy wrote:I have a NATO
[quote=Escoguy]I have a NATO military tenant with an allowance of $3620/month for a SFH in 92027. Multi-year lease with extensions already committed. Regular annual escalation in contract too.[/quote]

That’s what people,look at in Hawaii also.

FlyerInHi
FlyerInHi
6 years ago
Reply to  XBoxBoy

XBoxBoy wrote:SD investor
[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=SD investor]
I hear wages only go up by 2-3%, but from the 1st bonus graph, it seems like wage is keeping up with rent? Is SD wage going up faster than national average?[/quote]

Keep in mind that the mix of jobs in San Diego is slowly changing to have fewer low paying jobs but more high paying jobs. When you hear wages are only going up by 2-3% that’s wage inflation. But in San Diego you not only have wage inflation you have a change in the ratio of high to low paying jobs which makes up the difference.[/quote]

I don’t think the ratio is changing. We have more high paying jobs but also plenty of low paying job.

Not enough building and whatever gets built is higher end. . The marginal sales are what is driving house inflation. We actually have a real housing emegcency in San Diego.

Singapore has been in the news lately. Look at their housing prices — some of the highest In the world. The difference is that 80% of their population lives in public housing and don’t pay more more the 1/3 of their income towards housing.
https://youtu.be/a7eVenDn8CE

pokepud3
6 years ago

Thanks for the update. It
Thanks for the update. It does seems like it’s inching up to the unaffordable mark again for most. They should have never did the QA. Judging at the cycles before 2000, they seem to reset themselves normally during 2009 they didn’t allow that to happen.

wawawa
6 years ago

For whatever it worth; I went
For whatever it worth; I went to MAZDA dealer for service on my car. The sales lady that I know told me that their business has been significantly slow during past few month. We might be near peak.

RichardJamesEsquire
6 years ago
Reply to  wawawa

Mazada has such a small slice
Mazada has such a small slice of the US pie. How many they sell seems pretty insignificant.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/656360/monthly-us-vehicle-sales-by-major-brand/

gzz
gzz
6 years ago

Still no sign of rising
Still no sign of rising rates. Fed has the power to jack up the short term rates, but long-term has barely budged. 30-year rate is still the same 3% it was in February. The Fed raised its target rate by 0.5% during that time.

gzz
gzz
6 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Yes I should have said
Yes I should have said “nominal rates rising to historic averages.”