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17 years ago

Thanks for the data.


Thanks for the data. Your Price Per S.F. chart is very helpful – something I NEVER see in the mainstream media, which tends to simply regurgitate the Median Sales Price figures and print quotes from the usual suspects.

17 years ago

Meanwhile, various industry
Meanwhile, various industry shills are trying to claim — against the backdrop of inventory gluts, declining real estate industry employment, resetting mortgages, potential tightening in the lending markets, and generally increasing pessimism — that the bottom is in for housing.

To me it’s all about the resetting mortgages and lending standards. As prices fall the standards will get tighter and tighter, and that alone will easily knock out 50% of the buyers that could have qualified to buy homes at these prices last summer. Add on top of that more inventory from distressed borrowers who were allowed to take out loans like that and I have a hard time seeing how we’re anywhere near the bottom. It’s just getting started, especially up here in LA.

17 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I saw a report on the local
I saw a report on the local news last night that according to a local real estate “expert” (I think it was Alan Nevin?), that this is a great time to buy. Why?

According to Alan, because rents are increasing and homebuilders will be offering great deals in the fourth quarter.

How do you think this works? Does Alan just call up the news and say that he wants to discuss the market and they go ahead and put him right on. Whenever he feels that the sheeple need a little extra motivation he simply picks up the phone and says whatever he wants?

17 years ago

We have similarly-shaped
We have similarly-shaped curves, but numbers are not yet across-the-board negative in Silicon Valley.

Our most-recent, “The Last 30 days,” is at:


“Al RE is local,” for real-world examples, is at:

New editions will be coming out in the next few days.


17 years ago

The detached resale price
The detached resale price per sqft data is fascinating… The data shows a Spring Bounce followed by the Cruel Summer. There was a 4% price decline since June! Looking back a year, we can expect to stay on this trajectory until next spring, which would bring us to over 10% down by April.

In my mind, if prices continue to plummet next spring, with no bounce, the decline will begin to accelerate (as if -1.2% per month isn’t already fast enough.)