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sdduuuude
14 years ago

I’d be curious to see the
I’d be curious to see the absolute dollar amount increase in the median values for condos and SFRs.

Classic economics tells us that when the gov. implements a tax on a product, the burden of that tax is shared by the buyer and seller. Even if only the buyer pays the tax, prices adjust downward such that the seller loses revenue. The shared percentage varies, depending on the slope of the demand curve (and maybe supply, too. Or maybe it is the relative slopes. I don’t remember. Maybe econProf can clarify.)

Similarly, for for a tax credit, the buyer and seller share the credit it because prices adjust – in this case, upward.

I’m curious to see if the abosolute dollar amount increase reflects this theory.

Buying using this soon-to-expire credit – especially this month – seems a very short path to being underwater on a mortgage.

sdduuuude
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Sorry. I was thinking April
Sorry. I was thinking April to May. This is the delta between the the month prior to the implementation of the Cali credit, and the first month where the Cali credit was in-place.

sdrealtor
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Just anecdotal but I think
Just anecdotal but I think higher prices are starting to pull sellers into the market who either were or felt they were underwater. There are also some sellers that felt prices were too low for them to sell but with prices up a bit they are starting to test the waters.

pencilneck
14 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

If Rich’s prediction is
If Rich’s prediction is right, and I believe it is, we will see housing weakness again by July. These numbers may not be digested or widely available to the public until late summer.

Also in mid to late summer the census workers will start to be laid off. Jobs numbers will look stunningly bad for a while as well.

I believe that these forces acting together will damage the public’s perception of a solid recovery. It is going to be an interesting Fall.

SD Realtor
14 years ago
Reply to  pencilneck

A few thoughts. Rich you are
A few thoughts. Rich you are mostly correct about new inventory but don’t overlook contingents going back to actives because of buyers bailing. Totally agreed with sdr about sellers jumping in who are on the edge of underwater. Finally I do not think the halt of stimulus will hurt as much as two other issues. The first issue is that to many sellers have entered the market recently wit unrealistic price expectations. As a realtor you try and try to give sound advice but many times sellers simply cannot be reached so they need to sit on the market to live and learn. Second I feel we are near a seaonal low in the bond market and if the ppt can patch0 up the stock market then we may see a slow but steady rise in rates through the rest of the summer.

sobmaz
14 years ago

Well I don’t know what the
Well I don’t know what the stats show but I can tell you what I see in REAL TIME as a prospective home buyer.

In the “Prime Areas” you can get a house for 650K now that would have sold for 720ish just 4 months ago.

In the nice areas, not Prime nor the Barrio, but simply decent areas 550 today will get you what 650K got you just 4 months ago.

The areas I have been watching like a hawk are 92104, 92115, 92120.

In Real Time, prices are falling.

Or…..it could be that since inventory is increasing the “average” sales price is now available to more and more average people. Through most of 2008 and 2009 only those with the “right connections” were able to get properties that had huge price reductions.

In other words, you read all the time how prices are down 30% from the peak but the only stuff available to the Average Sucker that is for sale are only down 5 or 10%. What I am saying is that perhaps what I perceive as recent price declines are in fact simply the previous declines that are now available to everyone including the Average Joe and not just those in the know.

pemeliza
14 years ago
Reply to  sobmaz

Sobmaz, I agree with your
Sobmaz, I agree with your post. I track 92103 and I see the same stuff you do.
Last year you couldn’t hardly find a house in Mission Hills under 600k now there are around 20 and furthermore 9 of them are at or under 500k.
Prices are being set at 5-10% below recent comps and the houses are sitting. Stuff that is closing is going for a very high percentage under list price. Seems like we have entered the second leg down and with sales volume falling off a cliff at the same time banks seem to be finally listing houses this could get ugly fast.

sdrealtor
14 years ago
Reply to  pemeliza

Interesting stuff as I’m not
Interesting stuff as I’m not seeing that in NCC. Thanks for the good observations

pemeliza
14 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

The one thing that is
The one thing that is becoming clear during this downturn is that quality of schools trumps everything else. The areas that are getting hammered are the ones with suspect schools. Location is important but appears to be secondary.

It seems like people with the money to buy these days are all fighting over the same couple of houses because at the end of the day there just are not that many places in San Diego county with the elite schools AND the elite locations.

sdrealtor
14 years ago
Reply to  pemeliza

So true but I wouldnt put
So true but I wouldnt put location as secondary just not able to stand on its own same as elite schools with poor locations would. If the Black Plague came back the undertakers would make a killing (sorry bout the puns). No matter how bad things look on a macro level someone is always making a killing. Those people want elite schools and the elite locations which is why they hold up better in times like this.

As you pointed out elsewhere we are defintely seeing elite locations with second tier schools taking a hit now.