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  1. nostradamus
    February 16, 2008 @ 2:49 PM

    Thanks Rich.

    Thanks Rich.

    the overwhelming glut of must-sell supply stacked up against meager demand strongly indicates that — for San Diego as a whole, anyway — there is plenty more downside to come.

    Yes, that Case-Shiller chart seems to display it best. 

  2. AKguy
    February 18, 2008 @ 9:58 AM



  3. davelj
    February 18, 2008 @ 1:12 PM

    As usual, awesome data
    As usual, awesome data regurgitation/presentation/update. What’s your guesstimate on NOTs this year? More than 16,000? Oh my… that would lead to some interesting pricing…

    • rockclimber
      February 19, 2008 @ 8:44 AM

      Hi Rich,
      Great data! I

      Hi Rich,

      Great data! I really like your final forclosure graph to give the historical perspective, but I find myself wanting to know the magnitude of the monthly pressure on price that forclosures are generating (since this is a monthly report). It seems that NOT’s/Sales would be that measure. What do you think?

      BTW, these reports are the reason I keep coming back, even though I’ve moved away from SD. The smaller metro that I’m in has no one doing this kind of analysis. I keep thinking I may have to do it myself… but alas the skiing is too good to start now, and the mountain biking and climbing will be too good once spring hits…

      Cheers, R

  4. cr
    February 19, 2008 @ 10:29 AM

    Great info.
    Of course the

    Great info.

    Of course the NAR’s take on the national decrease is less activity at the higher price levels – because prices can never go down.

    Eventually we will see a random month-to-month increase in the median at which point the perma-bulls (awfully quiet these days btw) call the bottom and thumb their noses at the bears only to be proven wrong when it takes another dive. Of course they will use the median when noting the increase but the CS HPI to minimize the price drop.

    • Rich Toscano
      February 19, 2008 @ 1:02 PM

      Thanks for the kind words,

      Thanks for the kind words, y’all.

      davelj, I haven’t formed a guesstimate of 2008 NODs. But they could sure be high. First, we have more NOD’s likely coming as risky mortgages reset. But worse yet, we have a lot of NODs piled up that haven’t even turned to NOTs yet, but will do so in all likelihood. By coincidence ocrenter has a piece up today on how long it’s taking some NODs to get thru the pipeline.

      rockclimber, I agree and actually intend to update the sales-to-NOD chart shortly. (I was using NOD because it’s less volatile and also more predictive because it happens earlier). Background can be found here and recent update here.

      Hope everyone has a great week.


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