[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor]zk I am a bit to busy to go back and gather the data to determine what was peak pricing and then compare it to comps.

I prefer to think of the direct bottom line. Speculating about who is and who is not underwater is useless. People cling to the notion of the underwater inventory for reasons that elude me. Even if there is the vast underwater inventory that these people hope, for the govt has already shown us that there is no moral hazard and that these people will be bailed out through programs already in place.

So what does it matter?

I am seeing exactly what Jim is writing about. It is sheer carnage in the middle pricing tier under 1M.

The only real mystery is why the lack of inventory.[/quote]

I wasn’t asking you to pull comps. Just your general perception.

I disagree that speculating about who is underwater is useless. I know several people personally (so I’m sure there are a lot of them out there) who would sell if they weren’t under water. Whether it makes sense or not for them to be worried about it in light of the government’s willingness to bail them out is irrelevant. They don’t want to sell until they’re no longer underwater.

I’d be interested to hear other opinions on current market prices vs. peak prices.

[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor] Yes there are still alot of people underwater but nowhere near as many as there were in 2009. Furthermore that number is being whittled down daily.[/quote]

[quote=utcsox]
JTR had a post yesterday of CV heading for +20%.. Is that fairly close to what you are seeing also? I think the house on the post yesterday is either on Torrey Hills area or Carmel Country Highlands. South of 56, 4+ bedroom with one bedroom down stair.
If this is true, you will not be underwater if you bought it in 2011, 2012 time frame.[/quote]

This is the house JTR was talking about:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11220-Corte-Belleza-92130/home/6293649

It sold in March ’04 for 1.15M. March ’04 was a bit before the peak, but was fairly close to it, pricewise. So, if they get 1.2, which JTR says on the video he thinks they might, that’s peak pricing.

Here’s another one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10777-Spur-Point-Ct-92130/home/6315926

This one sold in Jan ’06 (two months after the peak) for just under 1.2M. The owners upgraded somewhat, and got 1.3M this month. The upgrades might’ve cost 100k, but wouldn’t be worth that much in resale. So, again, we’re at least at peak pricing for this house.

Are these outliers, or are we at peak pricing in Carmel Valley?

SDR, what are you seeing in CV and the other areas you’ve been talking about in regards to current pricing vs. peak pricing?

Once we’re at peak pricing, the only people left underwater are people who borrowed more than their house was ever worth. Are there very many like that?

[zk]

[quote=desmond]Sell one, move into the other until that home becomes your official residence, then try to sell that one. Move to Austin and get your ass kicked daily by “rednecks” that drive trucks”, brilliant![/quote]

Not as many rednecks in Austin as in the rest of Texas. Probably only marginally more than in Temecula, for that matter. I’ve been to Austin many times. Fantastic city. Weather, not so great. Lots of thunderstorms, which is cool. But the summers are pretty brutal. Like Temecula but with humidity.

[zk]

Sucks for workers that the days of a company keeping you on for 40 years with ever-increasing pay and then giving you a pension are gone. I guess our kids are going to have to start saving early and save a lot. And plan for the possibility of reduced income starting in their 40’s. I don’t know, seems to me, anyway.

I don’t know what price range your houses are in, and I’m not familiar with the Temecula market. But from what I’m seeing elsewhere, I would consider asking for the moon, especially if your houses are in a lower price range. I’ve seen houses go for way more than I would have thought possible. You might even just test the market, especially if your plan hinges on getting a very high price. Put ’em out there for something really high and see what happens.

The realtors on this board usually give pretty solid advice. And if they don’t like this plan, that should carry some weight. But if you find a listing agent and he tries to talk you out of listing really high, obviously you need to remember it’s better for him to list it at something it will definitely sell for rather than a “test the market” price.

[zk]

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[zk]

[quote=barnaby33]Surfing, of a different kind: http://youtu.be/OkMCTKeruy0

Josh[/quote]
Damn, that looks like fun. I gave up skydiving and hang gliding when I had a kid. Which was before paragliding got as popular as it is now. It looks safer than hang gliding.

Is it strictly thermals that you’re riding,or is there some slope lift involved?

[zk]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Also, zk, your “chicken game” with the train (coaster?) was kind of scary. I guess you know what you’re doing but I don’t think I’d want to be your passenger, lol![/quote]

If you’re playing chicken and it’s not scary, you’re not doing it right!

[zk]

That’s good stuff. Here’s my latest video:

[zk]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=CA renter] . . . Just because people put (some) information about their situations on the internet doesn’t mean they want to be stalked.[/quote]

Now, CAR, you must know that my posts have never risen to the level of “stalking.” However, I can’t say the same for a couple of other Piggs. You know I have no interest in that and that isn’t me.

You must admit that this statement is just a bit over the top ;=)[/quote]

BG, your staunchest supporter writes a well-crafted, gentle post with constructive criticism, and your response is to point out where you think she’s wrong. And where other Piggs are worse than you. My question is this: Do you know you’re an insufferable boor and you don’t care? Or do you think other people are overreacting to you? Or do you see it some other way? I’m genuinely curious.

[zk]

[quote=Ren]

[quote=bearishgurl]

[blah blah blah blah]

[/quote]

I don’t like to use this term much, but… LOL. You have a bad habit of describing in excruciating detail (including weirdly exact ranges) what you think happens to people, then applying them to an entire county and generation, as if everyone went through the same scenario. I live over here in Real Life, where every situation is unique.[/quote]

Ren, I saw a fairly evenly mixed reaction to your discussion with BG, and want to assure you that a lot of posters and lurkers are silently rolling their eyes at BG’s arrogance, ignorance, and presumptuousness. If the majority that wants to post on this thread seem to not be bothered by her, it may be because a lot of us gave up paying too much attention to her rants long ago and therefore aren’t posting about them. My suggestion is to try the same.

Sure, there’s an occasional nugget there. She’s obviously intelligent and knowledgeable (in some areas). But you have to wade through several tons of manure to find each nugget and most people don’t find it worth it.

[zk]

[quote=CA renter]

Naturally, common sense should prevail and the environment, nature/personality/”street smarts” of the children, etc. should all play a part in how much freedom one’s children should have. Parents also need to role-play with their kids and explain the many different worst-case scenarios they might experience and help them determine what the best actions would be if they encounter unsavory characters or dangerous situations.
[/quote]

I agree that we’ve become too protective. Myself included (and my wife even more – I’m trying to back her off).

I’ve done the “what to do in the worst case scenario” thing that you mention, CAR, and now I’m not sure it was such a good idea. It’s not like we bombarded our child with this stuff; it was occasional. Yet sometimes she’ll ask about it like she expects it to happen some day. I have to explain that it’s very unlikely that something like that will ever happen to her. That she’ll probably go her whole life and nothing like that will ever happen. I’d like her to be a bit less afraid. Fear is one of the consequences of over-protective parenting (along with lack of independence and underdevelopment of life skills), and that fear will hinder their development if we over protect them.

[zk]

Not sure if you’d be eligible for membership, but I’ve done my last couple mortgages through Navy Federal Credit Union. Their rates were the lowest I could find anywhere.

[zk]

[quote=CA renter][quote=no_such_reality]I prefer pictures.

[/quote]

They got the party wrong, though. It’s the republicans who’ve spent like drunken sailors while reducing taxes (even though there is NO correlation between lowering taxes and economic growth) at the same time![/quote]

Exactly. Put “borrow” instead of “tax” and an elephant instead of a donkey, and you’ve got the republican party.

[zk]

When I saw the headline, I was thinking that probably most of the “reasons” would apply to me. Turns out none of them do. And, while not rich, I’m doing better than probably 98% of my coworkers who’ve had the same career for the past 25-30 years.

Part of my strategy has been to, at times, use others (our fearless leader, Mr. Toscano) to manage some of my money. But I didn’t “rely exclusively on their judgment when deciding where you should invest your money.” I listened to his ideas, his overall strategy, his philosophies, his willingness not to go along with the crowd (surprisingly, this last one seems to be an exceedingly rare trait), and they all made sense to me. I’m not knowledgeable enough of the markets/tactics/details to manage that part of my portfolio myself. So I had someone manage them who had more knowledge than me, and who has great strategies, but who also is extremely trustworthy and who I knew had my best interests at heart. Rich did quite well by me, and, the next time in a position to put some of my money in that type of investment again, I will absolutely use Rich again.

[zk]

[quote=Blogstar]So, nobody has noticed the missing Cessna? Where did this plane land in Mexico? Some of that would be noticed. If he got to Mexico it was probably in the trunk of a car. Does he have grudge against the federales? I thought he was supposed to be hunting cops not running to Mexico? Who is going to hide him in Mexico? He sticks out big time.

If he is there, it wasn’t a good plan, unless he has massive organized help. How likely is that?[/quote]

It wouldn’t be hard to land a Cessna deep in Mexico in a field and not be noticed. At least for a while.

I agree that, unless he has a lot of help, going to Mexico is a bad plan. But that’s the speculation by some authorities.

[Author]

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