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I agree that the whole thing was out of hand. I was merely trying to get to the root of the problem and help sort it out. I realize now that was a mistake. But since I’m knee deep in it now, might as well explain what I was trying to point out.

PS called SDR a liar, whether she used that word or not. Every one of SDR’s insults you mention came after she did that. You can’t insult someone’s integrity like that and not expect counterfire.

I could see that nothing was going to get better if she didn’t own up to starting the battle. And all I wanted was to try to help turn this blog from being “foul.”

Of course even mentioning that you can expose someone is scary. My guess is he didn’t mean to scare her, and that he regrets saying it.

I’m not going to suggest he apologize because we can see where that got me last time.

For the record, I’d rather be called “dumb ass”, “bitter loner”, and “pathetic individual” than liar. Of course, that may be because I am a dumb ass but I’m not a liar.

OK, let’s move forward and get back to the business of discussing the real estate market and not each other.

And let’s take PS’s advice and be careful with our words.

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I should be careful with my words? Which ones?

sdrealtor says “I’m having my best year ever.” You say “I don’t believe you.” How is that not calling him a liar?

If you really didn’t mean to insult him by saying that, then maybe you should be more careful with your words. Specifically the words, “I don’t believe you.”

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Yes, CV is virtually monopolized by Pardee, which is unfortunate. I’ve owned two Pardee homes and had nothing but trouble with quality and with their Customer Service.

As far as shopping, there is very little in CV unless you like Von’s, Baskin-Robbins, Souplantation and Ace Hardware and that sort of thing. UTC isn’t too far away.

CV is very diverse, but probably in a different way. Lots of people from Taiwan, China, India and the middle east. My daughter’s preschool is like a little UN. 20 kids in her class, and I don’t think more than 7 or 8 of them are of strictly European descent.

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Short of calling him a criminal of some sort, of course.

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“My comment that I don’t believe him might be strong, but is not insulting.”

Where I come from calling someone a liar is about as big an insult as you can level at someone.

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“All name calling came from his side, and the insults/name calling are really inappropriate.”

And calling someone a liar is appropriate?

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Some lot sizes are small, some are big. But the big ones are very, very expensive. Lots of houses are 10′ apart. Some aren’t. But again, the ones that aren’t are generally a couple million. Del Mar Meadows is in Carmel Valley, and some of the lots there are half-acre or more. But I don’t think there’s anything there for less than $3M.

Camel Valley does not have large-tree neighborhoods. If that’s what you’re looking for, Carmel Valley is definitely not for you. As I said, it’s mostly built since the mid ’80s.

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“I guess what I’m saying is I don’t believe you’re having the best year ever”

“Slow down, I was just asking you some questions.”

Those don’t jibe.

I’m not usually one to referee, but PS, I think you should apologize to sdrealtor for attacking his integrity (“I don’t believe you” = “you’re lying” = attack on integrity) before he says something he regrets. THEN your “humble” request to keep things positive might carry a bit more weight.

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Carmel Valley is just north of Sorrento Valley, just southeast of Del Mar, directly east of Torrey Pines. The weather, if you ask me, is perfect. 70-75 almost every day in the spring, summer, and fall. Overcast less frequently than right on the coast (La Jolla). Overcast only a few days a year more than Scripps Ranch (which is where I used to live, and which is just southwest of Poway). A tad less cold in the winter than Scripps Ranch. If you like it warmer in the summer than 70-75, then further inland (Poway, Scripps Ranch, Tierrasanta, Rancho Bernardo etc.) would be more to your liking weather-wise. The weather in San Diego and north county is determined mostly by how far you are from the ocean. Less than a mile, lots of overcast and a bit cool in the summer, 1-4 miles mild summers, 5-10 miles warmer summers, more than 10 or so miles hot summers.

Carmel Valley schools really are the best in the San Diego area (except maybe Rancho Santa Fe) and some of the best in the state. Test scores are very high, college attendence rates are very high for high school graduates, parents are very involved, new schools are opening to keep up with demand. Campuses are clean and safe.

Carmel Valley in general is very safe. Less crime than most places (including Poway, according to Yahoo Neighborhood profiles. Found one!).

There is plenty of shopping and other businesses close by. The beach is a very short drive.

The area wasn’t built up until the mid ’80s, so almost all the houses and businesses are newer than that. I suppose some people like that, and some people don’t.

It’s a very suburban feel, without any of the hipness of Del Mar or artsiness of Leucadia or bohemianness of Ocean Beach or young-hangoutness of Pacific Beach or rusticness of Poway or urbanness of downtown or ritziness of Rancho Santa Fe or oldness of Escondido or Hootervilleness of Ramona or enlightenedness of Hillcrest or lemony freshness of Lemon Grove or… well, I could go on and on. Suffice to say that it’s very plain vanilla suburbia. But it’s upscale plain vanilla. And did I mention the weather is nice?

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As I said, I think nominal prices will come down. So actually, we agree. I think your point about wages is a good one. The problem of outsourcing will only grow, it seems to me.

Of course, if the US decides to print its way out of this ridiculous debt we’ve incurred in the last 5 years, real wages and real home prices could fall while inflation soars (and nominal wages and nominal home prices stay flat). That very real possibility all by itself is enough to keep me from being very certain of the future of nominal home prices in SD. And I think that’s the only place we differ, is our level of certainty.

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sdrealtor,

I appreciate your posts for the balanced view and professional knowledge they help to bring to this page.

But when you say, “If there were no Realtors and no Multiple Listing Service which is not a public utility but rather a system paid for and supported by Realtors homes would be very difficult to sell at any price,” this seems to me to be a bit of an outdated view. Prior to the internet, it may have had more validity. But I don’t see any reason why there couldn’t be a website (or several) that contain all the listings of houses for sale. Such a website could easily be run without charging each seller more than a hundred bucks or so. There could be a complete listing of sold properties available for making comparisons. There’d be kinks to work out, for sure, but an efficient system could no doubt be established. Then, when buyer and seller agreed on a price, you could hire real estate professionals to check the title, check all the other things that have to be checked, cross the i’s dot the t’s, finish the paperwork, etc. You could pay them $60/hr just like you pay an engineer. Maybe a little more to cover their insurance. You’d end up paying them maybe a couple thousand. Which seems more reasonable and fair than paying them enough to send their kid to college just because the real estate racket forces you to do so.

When I say real estate racket, what I’m talking about is the fact that if you don’t offer 2 1/2 percent to the buyer’s agent, most buyer’s agents won’t show their clients your home. They, like so many commission-based sales people, frequently place the size of their commission ahead of their customer’s wants and needs.

It seems to me to only be a matter of time before a critical mass of home buyers and sellers understand what a fleecing is taking place, the MLS is rendered worthless, and you don’t have people making a full-time income for selling 3 or 4 houses in a year.

I’m sure you’ll disagree with a lot of the above, and I’m interested to hear your viewpoint.

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Jonze,

It’s a bit more expensive, but check out Carmel Valley (it’s within San Diego city limits, zip 92130). The schools are the best in the San Diego area, and among the best in the state. It’s also cooler in the summer, close to the beach, and not too far from downtown (about the same from downtown as Poway).

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Bob,

I’d be a little leery of any statements of certainty regarding the future of the housing market. To me, such certainty indicates a basic misunderstanding of the fact that the housing market is incredibly complex and dynamic. Thousands of factors are in play, and nobody can say with certainty what’s going to happen. Besides, if you interpret the phrase “housing will revert to the mean” to mean that the ratio of prices to income will revert to the mean, then that doesn’t necessarily mean that nominal prices will come down. As has been discussed on this site many times, if prices stay level and inflation really takes off, the price/income ratio could revert to the mean without nominal prices dropping.

That said, I think there’s a good chance nominal prices will come down. Will they come down enough for it to be worth it for you to rent? That, obviously, is the question. And the only thing you can do, it seems to me, is decide how much you think they’ll come down, and then decide whether you think that’s worth it or not. For instance, if you think there’s a 30% chance that prices will either come down less than 10% or go up, a 40% chance prices will come down 10-30% and a 30% chance prices will come down more than 30%, where does that leave you? Keep in mind that you’re taking a chance either way. If you sell and prices come down a total of 5%, you’ll probably wish you hadn’t gone through the hassle of moving, renting, etc. If you don’t sell and prices come down 40%, you’ll wish you sold.

If you’re going to rent until you buy your new house, then it really doesn’t matter if you lose your low property tax basis. Your property tax basis on your OC house will be the same regardless of what you do in the meantime. The comparison to make to determine costs for the next 5 years is between the costs of renting and the costs of owning your current house, property tax and all. And, of course, you have to factor in any appreciation or depreciation of your house.

If you’re going to sell one house and buy one house and the only variable is when you’re going to sell, then you really don’t have to take into account the costs and inconvenience of buying and selling, either. It adds up the same either way.

You do, of course, have to figure in the inconvenience of moving an extra time (or more than one extra time) and the inconvenience of renting. If you rent an apartment, you don’t usually have to worry about the landlord deciding he wants to sell or move in or otherwise kick you out (although a conversion to condos can usually not be ruled out). But you have to live in an apartment. If you rent a house, you’ll generally have to concern yourself with the landlord’s intentions. And you have to keep in mind that if the house you’re renting is an investment property for your landlord (which, of course, it usually is) then there’s an increased chance he’ll want to sell if prices really start to come down.

Only you and your wife can put a value on such intangibles such as “pride of ownership,” freedom from worry about being forced to move, etc. What’s important to you might not be important to someone else, and vice versa. So don’t let anybody tell you what’s foolish and what’s not.

And only you can put a (obviously negative) value on any tension that may arise from “convincing” your wife to move if that’s not really what she wants.

Good luck, I hope it works out for you.

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Very interesting, Cycle.

I wasn’t aware of those problems with the next generation of Chinese, and I wonder if that attitude is as widespread as you perceive it to be.

On the one hand, makes perfect sense. Mom and Dad can only have one child. They shower that one with all the love and affection and protection and money they can muster. They do what they can to make sure he doesn’t have to go through the pain that they went through.

On the other hand, they can only have one child…
For centuries, Chinese families without sons have feared poverty and neglect. They want a male child, because in Chinese culture (especially in China), it is up to the first born male to carry on the family name and to take care of the parents when they get old. So now that they can only have one child, if the first is a girl, they frequently abort it, give it away, or worse. And it would seem to me that if their culture values the idea of a male child taking care of the parents in old age so much that it is willing to discard or abort millions of baby girls, then it would value preparing those boys to take care of them in their old age.

This post was more conjecture than knowledge, Cycle, and I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on it.

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Davelj,

While I agree with a lot of what you say, I disagree with your comment that, “our risk-taking entrepreneurial culture is like nothing else on earth and is the real engine that drives the global economy.”

Chinese culture (specifically their drive to be prosperous combined with their willingness to work extremely long and hard to achieve that goal) easily matches our entepreneurial culture. In my opinion, it surpasses it decidedly. In Malaysia and Indonesia, Chinese make up a relatively small portion of the population, but control hugely disproportionate amounts of wealth. In Australia and New Zealand, they’ve also generated wealth in disproportion to their numbers. In Singapore, which is mostly Chinese, they’ve created an economy quite powerful for a country of that size. In Taiwan and Hong Kong, which have been largely free from the economic hindrance of Chinese rule, the economies are again very strong. Of course their per capita GDPs are smaller than that of the US and some other countries, but the US has had some advantages that may explain some of the difference. Chiefly our abundance of natural resources and the length of time that the US has had a government that is conducive to economic growth and strength.

In addition to the countries mentioned above, Chinese have made their economic mark almost everywhere they go, including the US. The problem in the actual country of China has been, and will continue for some time to be, hindrances created by their government.

I’m down with the China hype. If, that is, their government can further let go of its authoritarian ways and allow entepreneurs to prosper. Because the government is what’s been holding China back. Not any lack of risk-taking entrepreneurial culture on the part of its people.

All that said, I think there’s about an even chance that the government of China will screw the whole thing up completely and end up with a stagnant economy at best. But if they don’t, and we end up competing with over a billion people who will work passionately day and night for decades to achieve their deperately desired goal of prosperity, then it’s curtains for us. Curtains, I tell ya.

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