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ParticipantI think it’s obvious that there are large segments of each and every racial and ethnic group who think that they are superior to all other races. As I’m sure you know, plenty of white people have said, “she’s not good enough for my son. She’s (black, hispanic, Chinese, Native American, whatever).” I’m a little surprised (and more than a little worried about how the average person thinks) that someone who claims to “know much more about history and human psychology than the average person” would hear a Chinese person say that and see it from such a limited perspective.
I don’t think it’s any more prevalent among Chinese than any other race. But I do think that it’s among the major causes of war in human history. That, and warring with another race because you’ve jumped to conclusions about that race using limited information. Not that you would do that, PD.
ParticipantChartwelltm:
What is that, Real Estate info? As you can see, we were discussing the military and warfare. If you want to discuss real estate, I suggest you go to a real esta….
Oh, wait. Nevermind.
ParticipantPD quote: “Chinese people believe themselves to be superior to all other races.”
You don’t really believe that, right? You said that in the heat of the moment, right?
ParticipantI checked out the “special prices and financing.” They’re giving $20,000 towards flooring, and 3% of the purchase price toward financing. The houses being in the 950k to 1M range, that 3% is about another 30K. Plus, about 6 months ago, they started offering an 18k agent commission, which they hadn’t been doing before that. So that’s a total of about 50K less a buyer would pay, and about 68k less that the builder would get for the house (about 6.8%). All without dropping the “price.”
On the other hand, they had been increasing the prices between phases for the last 6 months. That slowed things down, hence the current offers. Still, with the incentives, the amount a buyer would pay now is a bit less than they’d have paid 6 months ago.
Participant“I pat myself on the back everyday for selling.”
PS, you certainly sound like a person who pats herself on the back more than I ever could. I suppose perhaps each of us could stand to move toward the middle of the spectrum which has self-doubt (which may not be fun, but which maybe provides the necessary true, deep introspection to check that you’re not making a mistake) on one end and self-confidence (which feels good but which, in doses too large, may remove us from the reality of the situation) on the other.
ParticipantI actually looked at a couple lease options after selling. The terms were absolutely horrible. There was no way it would have paid off unless prices went up considerably. The payments on the lease option were much higher than rent would’ve been, so if prices didn’t go up, that wouldn’t have worked either. I don’t know whether that’s how they usually work; maybe somebody more familiar with the business can tell us.
ParticipantI don’t doubt that in CAN go down. And my doubts that it will go down are limited. But they are there.
I agree that most signs so far point to “good decision.” But I figure that just to break even (after real estate commissions, increased property tax, and moving costs but not increased interest rates) nominal prices have to drop about 12%. After that, how much further they have to go for it to be worth the hassle is a nebulous matter. In any case, I have some doubts, albeit mostly limited ones. But those limited ones, I must admit, do weigh a bit on me.
Something to think about for those thinking of selling and renting. How sure are you, and how much concern will you have during the long period of time that it will take for this supertanker to start heading in the other direction and then actually make significant progress in that direction.
ParticipantI assume our posts “crossed in the mail.” As you can see, I’ve sold and I’m renting. I own no real estate.
Despite our slight differences in opinion on RE, I think we agree on a lot of other things. My wife stays home with our daughter; she has since before birth. And I, too, am happy to spend thousands of dollars on ice skating, ballet, gymnastics, soccer, swimming, piano lessons and art class. As I occasionally say to my wife, those things (and saving for college) are the very reasons I work so hard.
ParticipantWell, PS, I’m not sure if calling someone “programmed” passes the “gentleman test” (or in this case the “lady test”) but I’ll respond anyway.
You are correct that your logic cannot change my mind. I don’t always agree with your logic. But I have found plenty of information and solid (in my opinion) analysis that does lead me to believe that a good chance exists that nominal prices will fall. And, as I mentioned in an earlier response to one of your posts, I have sold my house and I am renting. I am simply not as certain as you are that it was a good move.
I, like you, want to help other people. And that is why I point out on this forum that, in my opinion, your certainty is excessive, and that anyone reading this forum and basing his real estate decisions (at least in part) on what he reads here should hear a different viewpoint.
ParticipantNothing is a sure thing. Exactly. That’s my point.
ParticipantThose are good points, PD. However, the point of my post wasn’t to debate the finer points of selling vs. not selling. (In fact, that is a lengthy discussion which has only been debated on this forum in bits and pieces.) The point was that making hundreds of thousands by selling and renting is not by any means the sure thing it seemed to have been made out to be.
ParticipantI’ve read all of Rich’s articles, and hundreds more on the San Diego real estate market. I’ve also read quite a bit about asset bubbles. I understand they all pop (by definition).
Do I think that the 2000-2006 real estate bubble is the only asset bubble in the history of the world which does not correct? Of course I don’t. But this bubble could correct without nominal prices dropping. And, for someone selling, renting, and buying again, nominal prices are what count.
The spike Rich illustrates in his June 7 voice article is a spike in the ratio of home prices to per-capita income. For this ratio to return to normal, there has to be a drop in nominal prices, or an increase in wages, or some combination thereof. The question is: how much of each will occur? If most or all of the correction comes in the form of increased wages, then someone who sold, rented, and bought again will not have made several hundred thousand dollars for his trouble. And, as I said, they’ve paid maybe 30k or 50k in real estate commissions, increased their property tax by several thousand dollars a year, paid to move at least twice, and will probably have to borrow at higher interest rates the next time.
Do I think most or all of the correction will come in the form of higher wages? I think that there’s a good chance that it won’t. But I don’t think it’s anywhere near the sure thing that you make it out to be.
Participant“Fact-check anything and everything… you can assume the journalist didn’t.”
I’ve always tried to get my news from what I thought were reliable sources (LA Times, NY Times, W. Post, etc.) and therefore assumed I was getting the straight scoop. After 10 or 15 years in the business I’m in, though, I kept noticing articles about my field that I knew were inaccurate. Not just spun one way or another (although there is certainly plenty of that), but factually inaccurate. It then occurred to me that, if they’re getting those stories wrong, then obviously they’re getting plenty of other stories wrong, and I have no way of knowing it.
Yes, I agree, the media can’t be counted on. Or, for whoever said he was anal about such things, should I say, the media are not things on which we can count. Or, since it’s way past my bedtime and I’m probably rambling, should I just delete this entire post.
Ahh, screw it and goodnight.
Participant“The thought of moving is not worth several hundred thousand dollars to some people. I’m just mesmerized by this, I can’t figure out why not.”
It seems to me that you’ve confused your forecast with the actual future. If the future were certain (and it involved prices dropping 50%), and moving meant several hundred thousand dollars free and clear, I think almost all people (who are not wealthy) would move if they had the option.
The people who don’t want to sell and rent feel that way because they know that the future of nominal home prices in San Diego can’t be predicted with the certainty that you apparently believe it can. They are (rightly) concerned about the possibility that prices may stay level (or go up, or go down but not enough), in which case you can forget about intangibles and emotions. They’ve lost their low-interest-rate loan, their lower property tax basis, real estate commissions, moving costs, and the time and effort spent moving.
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