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Interesting comments on the forum format. I actually like the way it’s set up (and I like the colors, too).

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“We would have to see defaults roughly double from today’s level before they would begin to impact home values much.”

Interesting. I hope somebody shows him his own quote when defaults double from today’s level and asks him about it then. I’d like to hear his comments then.

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Depends what you mean by looking. We’re looking, but we’re not buying. Not anytime soon, anyway.

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Solman,

I agree that Saratoga homes barely fit on the Ridge lots, and that they’re not really big enough for a Derby Hill. All of that notwithstanding, the original plan was to put 3,000-3,600 sf homes on those lots. That is larger than a Saratoga and smaller than a Derby Hill (Derby Hill homes are 3500-4600 sf).

As far as putting CR and Saratoga on DH lots, that was speculation on rhinopham’s part, and, considering the sudden and drastic change in the plans for the Ridge lots, I don’t think it can be ruled out. Of course, putting 3,000-3,600 sf homes or Saratoga homes there seems somewhat less unlikely than putting Carriage Run homes there.

There are plenty of neighborhoods where large and small homes are in close proximity. Steeplechase and Lexington are right next to each other, and they are nearly identical in size to Saratoga (Steeplechase) and Derby Hill (Lexington).

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Sounds like they told you about both the plan 3s available, and threw in a plan 2 just in case you decided to show interest in that plan. Exactly what you’d expect them to do if they wanted to sell you a house, but not worry you about market conditions. I bet if you tell them you’re interested in the plan 2, several other plan 2s besides the one they told you about will “suddenly” be available.

As far as switching them to smaller models, I suppose that’s possible. But most of the lots are relatively big. As you probably know, the “Ridge at Saratoga” was originally supposed to be 3,000-3,600 sf. homes to be sold about 2008. They suddenly changed those to 2500-2750 sf Saratogas and started selling them this summer instead. Trying to beat the crash, I would think. We’ll see how they do.

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Possibly what they’re doing, now that I think about it, is this: They tell buyers who they’re not sure about that only a couple houses are available. They judge from the buyers reaction (what questions they ask, how interested they seem) whethere they’re a serious buyer. If they judge that they are, then they say, “oh, it turns out that lot 22 is also available. Don’t like 22? Oh, it turns out 57 just came back on.” And so on.

Just a wild guess, really.

Did they ask you which plan you were interested in? If so, were the ones available all that plan? If not, were the 3 that they told you about one of each plan?

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Rhinopham,

When did you get the “3 houses” info? If it was in the last couple days, then either they sold 6 houses real quick (ever so doubtful) or they lied to one of us (probably you).

As I mentioned in an earlier post in this thread, Carriage Run agents seemed very reluctant to share information about which houses are available. If Derby Hill is telling some people one thing and others something else, that would be interesting to know. I did notice that when I went in there a month or two ago that there was only one home shown as “available,” but when I asked, I was told about 3 more that were available.

Maybe they’re trying to walk a fine line between scaring the customers (with the information that their houses are hard to sell, and that maybe that’s because the market is crashing) and informing the customers of what houses are available. Perhaps they size up the buyer or something and decide based on that. We’re in the top 5 on the list at DH, so maybe they figure we’re serious (we’re not).

I wonder if there are any agents out there who’ve worked in a sales office of a new home builder who can shed some light on the subject. Or any agent or anyone else who might know what the sales office strategy is.

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We went by the sales office a few days ago, and they gave us a sheet with 11 lots listed. They had crossed out the two that had sold. The lots still for sale were listed as:

Plan 1: 24,43,72
Plan 2 18,22,42,75
Plan 3 57, 78

As far as figuring out how much their latest phases sold for, you have to take into consideration that when houses aren’t sold at the phase release (or shortly thereafter), the builder makes decisions on lots of the ugrades (so that they can build the house on schedule). So lots of the houses listed above might sell for more than they were asking at the phase release, but have lots of upgrades.

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We get an email every day from a friend who is a realtor. She’s got some automated system set up where any time a listing that is in our area/price range changes (new listings, price changes, solds, expireds, cancelleds, etc.), it’s included in the email. (We’re not thinking of buying any time soon, but my wife is quite happy looking at all the reductions out there.)

Anyway, I’m sure lots of realtors have emails like this set up. And this flipper’s house would show up in the email every time he changes the price. Maybe that’s another reason he does it.

Poor bastard. He’s desperate.

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I agree with your assessment, Daniel.

This affects more than just these projects, of course. If they’re building houses at half their previous pace, that’s a problem for some construction workers. Add up all the delays for all the housing projects in San Diego, and there’s lots of money that construction workers won’t be making.

Also, it adds to the change in buyer sentiment.

It all adds up to more bad news for the future of the SD housing market.

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Derby Hill, Pardee Homes’ very expensive neighborhood in Carmel Valley, has had several homes come back on the market, probably as a result of contingent buyers not being able to sell their homes. A few weeks ago, they had 4 homes available; now there are 9 available.

Also,if you go to Carriage run, (smaller homes in the same area) they are very reluctant to tell you how many houses they have available. In the past, at most new home tracts, they have a map on a table in the sales office that tells you which lots are available. At Carriage run, they don’t have one of those. And, if you ask what they have available, they ask you what floor plan you’re interested in (my wife and I went in at different times and both got this response). If you say, “all of them,” they give you a blank stare for a second, stammer about “I don’t know exactly” for a few seconds, then go to the back room to consult with the lady in charge, and come back with a sheet of paper that has highlighted one home of each model from each phase (two phases so far, so that’s six houses). Are those really the only six available? Possible, doubtful.

I think it’s pretty clear that they’re worried about market psychology at this point (and well they should be). At Carriage Run’s first phase release, some friends of ours were thinking about buying a house for their mother. They were pretty far down the list, and when they saw nobody in front of them buying, they got a bit scared and decided not to buy.

I think the market psychology is changing faster than I’d have anticipated despite the best efforts of the RE industry. I mentioned a friend in an earlier post who called me a “dumbass” for not buying a home right now, as they’d be going up 10% a year for a while ’til things got better, and then, in a few years when things got better, they’d be going up faster than that. That was only a few weeks ago. Yesterday, he called me a “genius” for waiting. Sounds ridiculous, I know, for somebody to change their mind that much that fast. But that is, I think, typical of your average person. I think that homebuyer sentiment is a huge wave that just crested and is crashing right now before our eyes.

It’s been my argument all along that market psychology is the most important factor in the future of the housing market. And if peoples’ opinions continue to change at the current rate, it’s my opinion that prices will drop pretty fast.

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Correction: That phrase appeared in a story on the front page of the Business section of the SDUT.

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Pardee Homes’ Arabella development (very close to Airoso) also has some homes listed on the MLS, some of which have been reduced after staying on the market for a while.

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Well, I’m a little late to the party. I see the article is already posted on the main page. I’d erase this forum topic if I knew how. Sorry!

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Deadzone quotes:

“To suggest that genetics plays a role in athletic ability (i.e. africans are faster runners) but does not play any role in academic ability is pure ignorance.”

“(Mexicans) are probably not coming from the best genetic stock in terms of academic intelligence.”

I can’t imagine that what you meant is that Mexicans aren’t as smart as… whoever it is that you’re saying has better “genetic stock.” Is it? Is that what you’re saying?

As far as your theory that genetics play a role in academic ability, you seem to say that this applies to whole races. Assuming, for a second, that your theory is correct, why do you think the Mexicans are of inferior genetic stock?

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