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“do you have a sense if there is a large number of people who belong to these categories”

These are all wildly speculative guesses on my part:

a) investors who got in the market close to the peak;

Probably a lot less than in areas with lots of condos and cheap houses, but some. One offer we got on our house was from a speculator (that’s what our realtor said about him, anyway.)

b)those who have cash flow problems if they stretched too much to buy;

Probably the same as or less than most areas. Higher incomes than most areas, but higher prices, also.

c) those who move out of area.

Probably the same as most areas. It seems to me there are a lot of people who work in fields that require them to move as their companies change their configuration, or the project their startup biotech was working on ends, or their engineering job got sent to India. Again, wildly speculative and I really don’t know. That’s just my feeling.

Also, and this is almost a different subject (but not quite):

I think that, regardless of how many people in CV (or any other particular area) need to sell, an overall decline in the market will hurt prices everywhere. Say prices drop everywhere but CV drop by 40% (hypothetical situation). What’s to keep the next house that sells in CV from having to sell at a 40% discount (or nearly 40%)? CV is historically more desireable than PQ by a certain percentage and less desireable than Del Mar by a certain percentage. Why would that percentage change?

That’s not a rhetorical question. I’ve heard people say that certain areas hold their value better, but I don’t understand why. And I’d like to.

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“One house may have no upgrades and minimal yard improvements, and the other has 200K in interior upgrades and pool/landscaping/hardscaping.”

The daily updates I get include multiple pictures, listings of upgrades, etc. It’s possible that there are things that are of value that aren’t listed (which would be the selling agent’s fault), but usually the information is pretty complete. Plus, some of the houses that have sold for peak prices are ones I’ve visited during open houses. If you’re as familiar as I am with a certain area, and you’re getting pretty complete information, it’s pretty easy to tell when somebody overpaid, especially if they overpaid by a bunch. And, like PS said, it seems right now to be a two-tier arrangement. Either they’re getting peak prices, or they’re getting today’s prices. Which must be real frustrating for the sellers who get today’s prices and the buyers who pay peak prices (and then get informed of such by their neighbors).

I wonder, as prices continue to fall (assuming they do), how this situation will play out. Will some sellers continue to get prices that were current months before they sold? For how long will some continue to get peak prices? Will some start to panic sell for less than current prices for fear of having to sell for even less later?

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“some sellers were getting the higher price.”

As someone who has been watching the CV market very closely for a couple years, I can say that that is definitely true. Every time I see a “sold” where the seller got peak pricing, I get a bit disgusted with whatever agent these chump buyers are using. Buyers can’t be expected to be intimately familiar with the current situation. I would be, and most readers here would be, and if you have any sense you will be. But a lot of people don’t have sense, and therefore don’t familiarize themselves enough with the market. Or maybe they don’t really have the time to do so, and they figure that that’s what realtors are supposed to be for. The only mistake they make is to trust a realtor to have the buyer’s best interests at heart rather than their own. (Before I get angry responses, let me make it clear that I believe that there are plenty of honest agents out there. But there are also unethical ones. It’s the unethical ones I’m talking about.) So the realtor gets enough money to send his kid to college, and for what? For letting their client pay way too much for a house.

Sometimes, if the house is really a great house in a great location with a great view or something, I can almost let it slide. But when an entirely pedestrian property gets bought for a price that is reminiscent of the recent panic buying (and especially when plenty of other similar properties could be had for far less), I feel like a great injustice is being done.

Realtors: Do you have any system at all in place to check such unethical behavior? Do you feel angry or betrayed when you see such things? Under what circumstances, if any, would you say something to a buyer’s agent who let his client pay too much?

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“Could the folks who are really interested please give me reasons why this is so as opposed to say Del Mar, or PQ which border it on either side?”

The only reason I live in CV and not Del Mar is that I can afford CV, while I can’t afford Del Mar (a house I would want to live in, anyway). I prefer CV to PQ because it’s newer (personal preference), closer to the ocean (and therefore cooler in the summer), and it has better schools.

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Derby Hill had a release today. There were 7 homes in the release, and they sold 3. At prior releases, they’d sold most or all of the homes. The 6 that were on the market as of last week were mostly or all ones that came back on the market as the “buyers” couldn’t sell their homes. Now, they’re not even selling well at the releases. And I thought it was kinda funny that, when I asked the guy how many they sold today he said, “we sold three. Well, we took checks on three, anyway.”

So, they’ve got 10 for sale now, and who knows if more will come back on the market as “buyers” have more trouble selling their homes.

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“I wonder if prices dropped 20% across the board overnight on all listings in SD, how many buyers would there be??”

Probably less than there are right now. If prices dropped 20% across the board overnight, there would be panic. Everyone would be convinced that buying a house would be the worst thing you could do. Who cares if you can get a house for 800k that used to cost a million if it might be worth 700k or less next year? The fear creates a cycle, just like the greed did on the way up. That’s why the mean overshoots.

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1)Rent
2)Sold in Dec. ’04 (Closed Feb ’05)
3)Before the peak. Actually between peaks in ’04 and ’05. Similar homes in CV might’ve gotten 3-4% more later in ’05 or earlier in ’04. I’m not sure what the median numbers would say about that, but I followed the market closely, and the numbers above are more accurate than any “published” numbers.
4)I remembered 1990 (I lost a bit on a house then). Uncanny how people my age (45) don’t remember very clearly what happened then. I sold a house in ’02 right before I bought the one in CV, and we actually considered not getting back into the market then, thinking prices were out of whack. Who knew prices would nearly double again! When we sold in ’04, we were going to move down to a smaller house, but decided to stay out of the market this time. Piggington’s was a staple of the voluminous and wide-ranging research I was doing at the time in trying to decide whether to buy or wait.
5)Yes.
6,7)N/A

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“Any other thoughts you guys might have on Derby Hills?”

3 quick ones:

I went in there on Tuesday the 22nd to defer. There were 6 houses available as of then.

I heard the salesman talking to a potential buyer on the phone. I think they were discussing the upcoming phase release. All I heard of the conversation was the salesman saying, “no, they’ll still be around 1.3, they won’t be any lower than that.” His tone of voice indicated that maybe they’re getting a lot of people asking about possible lower prices.

As far as the prices on the web page, they’ve never been accurate for Derby Hill, Carriage Run, Saratoga, Arabella, Santa Rosa or any other Pardee development in CV. I’ve asked them a few times about it, but I never get a straight answer. Something about the website being run by HQ or by somebody else having nothing to do with the sales office. As if that answered my questions.

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raise

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“Any sign that (China and Japan) are liquidating their holdings of US bonds could trigger a global stampede, causing a dollar crash and a broader financial crisis.”

This, of course, is pretty much common knowledge. Does anybody know whether there’s a consensus on what the odds are of that happening in, say, the next 10 years? Does anybody know if there’s a better place to keep a finger on the pulse of that situation than the news? Does anybody know what sorts of things would be considered precursors to such an Asian selloff?

I check news.google.com business section every day, and that seems to keep me pretty up to date on newsworthy things financial. If anybody has a better idea than that, I’m all ears.

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“I am not a mindless supporter.”

I did sort of imply that you were, and for that I apologize.

“for the record, I never said 90% of us were here because she’s here.”

I agree that you didn’t say that. And, for the record, it wasn’t me who said you did. But you did say, about the meetup, “Mainly we all want to meet Powayseller.” I wasn’t sure where you got that from. I mainly wanted to see Rich, CJ, Bugs, you, Farls, sdrealtor, asianautica and Leung Lewis. Farls especially, among the posters. I like his reasoning and his points of view.

“She has definitely educated me.”

My response to that statement is the main reason for this post. I should have said this earlier: She has definitely informed me of some things I am fortunate to now know. She brings a huge amount to this forum. I just think she could bring even more if she saw herself from another perspective. It’s that perspective I hope to bring.

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Kristine,

I didn’t see the gender comment as a generalization. And I certainly wasn’t trying put women down. If my comment appeared misogynistic, I apologize for misrepresenting myself.

That being said, the reason for the comment was to try to help PS understand something. If a person is supported uncritically despite the error of her ways, it helps to understand why that support is there. If PS is thinking to herself, “I can’t be wrong, I get so much support from hs, lost kitty, PD, lindismith, et. al,” then she needs to understand that perhaps the reason she’s getting that support isn’t necessarily that she’s wise or brilliant. It may be because those other women are supporting her because that’s what people of like kind do, and have done since the beginnging of humankind (now that’s a generalization).

I wouldn’t bring gender into this topic unless I thought it was relevant. And if you consider this a “business” forum, and the only comment you have is the inappropriateness of my bringing gender into it, then you’re either not reading it very closely, or there’s some other reason you’re complaining about me bringing gender into it and you’re not complaining about PS calling people “arrogant assholes.”

If you had time to read all the posts on this forum (or if you already have), it is undeniable that most of PS’s support comes from women. So, I’m not making a generalization; I’m stating a fact.

PS was good enough to read my post, and get right back to the subject of real estate. I should’ve followed her lead and done the same thing.

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Wheat post. I like it.

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PS,

I think part of the problem may be that you consider yourself to be “educating” anybody.

You’re offering your opinion. Your opinion may or may not be correct. But you think that anybody who disagrees with you displays a “lack of intellectual capability on my questions.” You’re so certain that your opinions are correct that you don’t perceive somebody who doesn’t listen to your “education” uncritically as merely someone who disagarees, you see them as an unruly student who refuses to agree that the Earth revolves around the Sun.

“When I must do this with a seasoned investors or long-time piggington readers, it’s just repetitive and I lose my patience.”

I can’t speak for any other long-time pigginton readers, but I don’t consider what you dole out here as education at all. Let alone something you need to repeat. I see it as lots of research followed by what its sometimes very questionable analysis. I, personally, am happy to read what everyone posts, including you, look at it as objectively as possible, try to analyze the strength or weakness of the argument, and see if there’s anything I can learn. Sometimes I learn from what you post. Sometimes it’s a waste of my time. Which is fine. Every poster here (I don’t count Rich as a poster), including me, posts both solid and questionable material. I’m willing to go through chaff to get wheat. The problem is when you consider everything you write to be golden wheat and start saying that a perfectly reasonable man like Docteur is “(bringing) around a bunch of BS.” All that does is expose your possible emotional issues with your position in both the housing market and this forum.

I’ve been suspicious of such issues for quite some time, and wasn’t going to say anything until you failed the lady test horribly and removed most of the remaining doubt that I had about your issues. So many people here, especially the women, defer to you so uncritically. And some of the men seem to be in a bit of a cat fight with you. I’m neither, and I thought I’d offer my perspective on the issue. Read every post I’ve ever posted, and you’ll see that I’ve never called anyone a name, nor have I gotten emotional about anything. I’m trying to offer you advice from a calm, hopefully rational place. Of course you can take it or leave it.

I think you need to take a deep, close, open-minded look at yourself and see exactly why this forum and your situation make you feel the way you do. Learn to meditate, if you haven’t already, and meditate on it. (Meditation, for anybody who reads this, is a relaxation technique that changed my life. Anyone can benefit from it, and everyone should, in my opinion. It will most likely make you a calmer, happier person.)

And I think you need to understand that you are not always right. Intellectually, you may already understand that you are not always right. But emotionally, it seems to me that you’re struggling with that issue. Perhaps its part of a larger issue involving your confidence. Perhaps you really are certain you’re always right, in which case you need to somehow learn, deep down inside, that you’re not. Or perhaps you’re actually insecure, and the thought of being wrong horrifies you.

Perhaps it’s none of the above. Perhaps it’s nothing at all. But, from my perspective, is seems like there are probably changes that could be made for the better.

If you’re not honest with yourself about all this, then you can’t help yourself. Keep that in mind.

Good luck.

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Docteur, “you bring around a bunch of BS”

“sdrealtor is a rude arrogant asshole”

“lack of intellectual capability on my questions”

Hoo! I’m pretty sure none of those powayseller quotes pass the lady/gentleman test that ps herself espoused. Heck, they’re not even true.

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