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Submitted by PD on November 2, 2006 – 7:24am. Relative peace?

Yes – relative peace.  What part of that two word phrase are you having trouble understanding while you stumble over logic in an attempt to blame Clinton for all of America's woes despite the fact that he's been out of office for 6 years?

What happened to the party of personal responsibility and fiscal restraint that I grew up admiring?

 

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And, Republicans wholeheartedly agree that our Congress and President have been a big disappointment on the fiscal conservatism side. But, we also know that the DemoRats would be worse on fiscal matters and dangerous on social and security matters.

Impossible.  The Democrats handed over a balanced budget and 8 years of relative peace.  

But feel free to continue spouting GOP talking points and ignoring reality; you're hardly alone.

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I think both Hitchens and Sullivan are on point. I find it hilarious that conservatives are far more upset about a miscontrued comment from John Kerry than the foreign policy debacle that is Iraq and the fiscal insanity that has the US deficit at record levels.

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I too think Jim was a bit off with his “10% appreciation” comment, but to chalk it up as “Realtor Desperation” is a bit unfair. Just because Jim has a different opinion doesn’t mean he’s “desparate”; rational minds can disagree. And as someone has pointed out, Jim revised his opinion in the comments section after reading reader comments and rethinking his position. What more can you ask for?

I love the ideas, data, and discussion Jim provides via his forum. It’s fine to disagree with Jim’s opinions, but I think powayseller is going too far when she suggests ulterior motives.

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For you short attention span liberals/progressives/daytraders, here's what it says: the average military person is more apt to have a high school diploma or GED certificate than the average civilian and has, on average, a higher IQ (AFQT correlates well with IQ; read the "Bell Curve").

 
This doesn't refute what Kerry said, and actually lends support to the idea that the military isn't where we send our "best and brightest". Those with the highest test scores and best grades hardly ever opt for military careers.

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Ouch – COP down > 5% since PS’s purchase in late Aug.

Stock market is on fire since she went 95% cash in March ’06.

Perhaps shorting PS’s market advice is the way to go?

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I wish powayseller’s participation wasn’t so static – either the board is full of her topics or she disappears entirely. A happy medium would be win-win for everyone.

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My rent hasn’t moved in 3 years.

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Personally, I’m looking for mid-December as a watershed moment. We’ll get November’s numbers ~ Dec. 15, and if that median is 466k or below, the YOY decline will be double digits (518k to 466k is almost exactly 10%).

When the headlines begin showing double digit YOY declines it should drastically cut down on the greater fools out there who are still overpaying for SD RE. Downward pressure on price snowballs with fewer sales, and next springs comps are even lower.

November’s median being at 466k (or lower) will accelerate the panic.

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If I recall correctly, that Moody’s article only measured SFR’s, not condos. So while I still believe their estimate of future declines to be naive, it’s not the same number we’re discussing with regard to the UT median.

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I don’t think anyone can point to a specific number and say “that many foreclosures will trigger a recession”. Our economy is too complex and dynamic for a singular issue to cause a meltdown. Obviously, more foreclosures signal greater economic distress.

My biggest criticism of your title was that instead of using Cagan’s exact words you chose a more bearish term instead of accurately quoting Cagan. If you had quoted him accurately, there would be no criticism.

Now you are suggesting that Cagan misused the word in the story. Perhaps he did – we’ll likely never know. But what is more probable – that Cagan misused the word, or that you misinterpreted his quote in your haste to post another bearish article? Again, I’m on your side, and believe the market is in the process of tanking, but I’m inclined to believe that the author of the quote actually meant what he said in his quote, and not your interpretation of what you thought he meant to say. I think we’re overanalyzing the issue when we question what Cagan “meant”; why not just assume that he’s rationale and meant what he said? His quote is scary enough without turning it into a doomsday guarantee, which was my point the entire time.

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In 2 years or less, PowaySeller will look like an Oracle.

 

I certainly hope so.  I enjoy her efforts and agree with most of her predictions re: the local RE market.  I've learned a lot from the discussions she's sparked by posting articles and analysis – so much so that my wife and I have put off buying until late '07/early '08 at the earliest.

But PS will still be wrong w/re: to her interpretation of the terms "at risk" and "expectation" – they are fundamentally different terms and are not to be used interchangedly in economic discussions.

 

 

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sdrealtor, I just spoke with a lady I met recently, who is a life coach, and asked her how to handle unprovoked criticism.

Re-read the original thread, and the 2 subsequent whine-fests you started in defense of your defenseless position that "at risk" = "expected".   You were/are being criticized b/c you spun the quote to make it appear more bearish, as you often do.  The criticism was neither personal nor unprovoked, it was an observation from serveral people who read you often and compliment your efforts for the most part.  Several of us who are obviously schooled in basic economics have tried to tell you that there is an important fundamental difference between the two terms, yet you refuse to budge.

Your quest to be right 100% of the time is amusing.  None of us are right all the time – we should all be happy to get more right than we get wrong.  Even you PS.

Have a great weekend – we'll have to agree to disagree.  I'll wear kiddie gloves when replying to your posts in the future.

 

 

 

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FYI – Kelly Bennett over at the voiceofsandiego disagrees with you PS.  From her blog in which she singles Cagan's comment:

Nineteen percent of 7.7 million is 1.463 million loans considered "at risk" by Cagan.

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Does this warrant a new thread? Why not post it in either of the other 2 threads you've devoted to this issue?

BTW, you're still wrong. No where in the March article you're now citing does Cagan say he "expects" 1.47M defaults, just as he doesn't come to that conclusion in the Sept 12th article.

Finally, "insults" is plural, and thus the corresponding verb should reflect that. It should be "personal insults were a joke", not "personal insults was a joke".

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