[urbanrealtor]

[quote=macromaniac]You have to love these Realtors today…typical self interest all the time. I bet you it was time to buy in 2005 also because you could get an option ARM loan and cash flow your rental property that was 75% over valued.

Hey Dan, you ever study economics 101? By the way, please show us where it is best to buy right now and why along with average rents with a 15% to 20% rent fade built in over the next two years….cant wait to see that information. [/quote]

I don’t think that what I say is particularly self serving or counterintuitive.
And I don’t own smoke weed anymore (other posters remarks notwithstanding).

To Macro: I have studied Econ. The micro and macro versions do not change what I am describing.

(Incidentally, my last year at UCSD included mathematical modeling of demand equations ala Von Neumann and Morganstern. If you have some helpful info on that front I will listen.)

What I am describing is more tangible than a class or book. The predicted rent fade are not something that are tangible until they actually exist (like 03’s 27 percent increases or 07’s 20 percent drop). Again, I can only describe what I am seeing and the what buyers are wanting. I personally don’t think that a class on econ makes a $536/mth payment (principal and interest on a 1-bedroom place with $10,000 down right now) a terribly bad idea.

Would you disagree?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=macromaniac]You have to love these Realtors today…typical self interest all the time. I bet you it was time to buy in 2005 also because you could get an option ARM loan and cash flow your rental property that was 75% over valued.

Hey Dan, you ever study economics 101? By the way, please show us where it is best to buy right now and why along with average rents with a 15% to 20% rent fade built in over the next two years….cant wait to see that information. [/quote]

I don’t think that what I say is particularly self serving or counterintuitive.
And I don’t own smoke weed anymore (other posters remarks notwithstanding).

To Macro: I have studied Econ. The micro and macro versions do not change what I am describing.

(Incidentally, my last year at UCSD included mathematical modeling of demand equations ala Von Neumann and Morganstern. If you have some helpful info on that front I will listen.)

What I am describing is more tangible than a class or book. The predicted rent fade are not something that are tangible until they actually exist (like 03’s 27 percent increases or 07’s 20 percent drop). Again, I can only describe what I am seeing and the what buyers are wanting. I personally don’t think that a class on econ makes a $536/mth payment (principal and interest on a 1-bedroom place with $10,000 down right now) a terribly bad idea.

Would you disagree?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=cooprider]Next year’s will be the state of California being evicted from the union.[/quote]

I would totally be okay with that.

Would we be better or worse without the union?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=cooprider]Next year’s will be the state of California being evicted from the union.[/quote]

I would totally be okay with that.

Would we be better or worse without the union?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=cooprider]Next year’s will be the state of California being evicted from the union.[/quote]

I would totally be okay with that.

Would we be better or worse without the union?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=cooprider]Next year’s will be the state of California being evicted from the union.[/quote]

I would totally be okay with that.

Would we be better or worse without the union?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=cooprider]Next year’s will be the state of California being evicted from the union.[/quote]

I would totally be okay with that.

Would we be better or worse without the union?

[urbanrealtor]

Macro,
I am an agent and long ago gave up the wacky tobacky. I don’t think anything of what I am about to say is unreasonable or crazy.

La Jolla is not a good example because if it cheapens even a little people will decide it is a good time to buy there and thus buoy the price.

The rest of San Diego has seen price drops between 30 and 70 percent.

I am listing something right now for 40% of what the owner bought it for (no I was not the agent then).

While I would agree that your neck of the woods could stand to drop more, I don’t see mine doing so any time soon.

Right now most of the buyers I am seeing are working stiffs who have crunched the numbers and realize that buying (instead of renting) would reduce their monthly payment by a couple hundred a month.

Thats the kind of economic world that is healthy and relatively sustainable, IMO.

Dan
urbanrealtor-at-gmail

[urbanrealtor]

Macro,
I am an agent and long ago gave up the wacky tobacky. I don’t think anything of what I am about to say is unreasonable or crazy.

La Jolla is not a good example because if it cheapens even a little people will decide it is a good time to buy there and thus buoy the price.

The rest of San Diego has seen price drops between 30 and 70 percent.

I am listing something right now for 40% of what the owner bought it for (no I was not the agent then).

While I would agree that your neck of the woods could stand to drop more, I don’t see mine doing so any time soon.

Right now most of the buyers I am seeing are working stiffs who have crunched the numbers and realize that buying (instead of renting) would reduce their monthly payment by a couple hundred a month.

Thats the kind of economic world that is healthy and relatively sustainable, IMO.

Dan
urbanrealtor-at-gmail

[urbanrealtor]

Macro,
I am an agent and long ago gave up the wacky tobacky. I don’t think anything of what I am about to say is unreasonable or crazy.

La Jolla is not a good example because if it cheapens even a little people will decide it is a good time to buy there and thus buoy the price.

The rest of San Diego has seen price drops between 30 and 70 percent.

I am listing something right now for 40% of what the owner bought it for (no I was not the agent then).

While I would agree that your neck of the woods could stand to drop more, I don’t see mine doing so any time soon.

Right now most of the buyers I am seeing are working stiffs who have crunched the numbers and realize that buying (instead of renting) would reduce their monthly payment by a couple hundred a month.

Thats the kind of economic world that is healthy and relatively sustainable, IMO.

Dan
urbanrealtor-at-gmail

[urbanrealtor]

Macro,
I am an agent and long ago gave up the wacky tobacky. I don’t think anything of what I am about to say is unreasonable or crazy.

La Jolla is not a good example because if it cheapens even a little people will decide it is a good time to buy there and thus buoy the price.

The rest of San Diego has seen price drops between 30 and 70 percent.

I am listing something right now for 40% of what the owner bought it for (no I was not the agent then).

While I would agree that your neck of the woods could stand to drop more, I don’t see mine doing so any time soon.

Right now most of the buyers I am seeing are working stiffs who have crunched the numbers and realize that buying (instead of renting) would reduce their monthly payment by a couple hundred a month.

Thats the kind of economic world that is healthy and relatively sustainable, IMO.

Dan
urbanrealtor-at-gmail

[urbanrealtor]

Macro,
I am an agent and long ago gave up the wacky tobacky. I don’t think anything of what I am about to say is unreasonable or crazy.

La Jolla is not a good example because if it cheapens even a little people will decide it is a good time to buy there and thus buoy the price.

The rest of San Diego has seen price drops between 30 and 70 percent.

I am listing something right now for 40% of what the owner bought it for (no I was not the agent then).

While I would agree that your neck of the woods could stand to drop more, I don’t see mine doing so any time soon.

Right now most of the buyers I am seeing are working stiffs who have crunched the numbers and realize that buying (instead of renting) would reduce their monthly payment by a couple hundred a month.

Thats the kind of economic world that is healthy and relatively sustainable, IMO.

Dan
urbanrealtor-at-gmail

[urbanrealtor]

Bear makes some good points regarding caution.
I do not entirely agree and will respond based on my experiences (mostly condos).

[quote=San Diego RE Bear]I recommend waiting too. This is going to be a very interesting year as the Option, Alt-A and Prime ARMs start adjusting in earnest and the high end begins to fall. My guess is that in the next six months the banks start capitulating and pricing the foreclosures in a more realistic manner. (Or at least start releasing the darn things.)

And you really need to think about buying a condo. 1.) HOA’s are a landmine – do you know how well funded it is? How many owners are no longer paying? The possibility of a “special assessment” for thousands, possibly even tens of thousands?
[/quote]
This CAN be true but really bears investigation. If you make an offer and it gets accepted, your buyer’s agent should be obtaining documentation about this within the first week of escrow. If the numbers do not work, then you should walk. The listing agent should be forthcoming about special assessments, regular assessment changes (aka HOA dues), delinquencies, foreclosures and other issues that could effect property value. If your agent, or the listing agent cannot perform, you should consider walking. A reserve study is a cpa’s estimation of how fiscally healthy the hoa is. You should ask for one completed in the last 12 months.

[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
2.) Condos do not hold value or increase in value like SFR’s do. Long-term not as good an investment. Yes, it’s cheaper now but if SFR’s drop and become more affordable do you really want to be stuck in a condo.[/quote]
Generally, this is only partly true. During the boom, the condos increased by a greater percentage than most sfr’s. This is not a hard and fast rule but a good example is the graph that our blogmaster posts showing different tiers of properties. You will notice that the cheapest properties increased (percentage-wise anyhow) the most. Condos typically are the cheapest of the cheap properties (again not always a rule). The preference issue that Bear raises may be legitimate but I personally prefer condos and urban areas(hence my handle). I have lots of friends-and clients-who feel the same.
[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
3.) Rent a condo in the complex you are looking at – you might find have people all around you a bit of a culture shock after your own (granted tiny) home.
[/quote]
That is a very good idea. Always do that.
Here is a good link for tenants to avoid getting screwed. http://www.dca.ca.gov/publications/landlordbook/index.shtml
[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
Hope that helps and best of luck![/quote]

[urbanrealtor]

Bear makes some good points regarding caution.
I do not entirely agree and will respond based on my experiences (mostly condos).

[quote=San Diego RE Bear]I recommend waiting too. This is going to be a very interesting year as the Option, Alt-A and Prime ARMs start adjusting in earnest and the high end begins to fall. My guess is that in the next six months the banks start capitulating and pricing the foreclosures in a more realistic manner. (Or at least start releasing the darn things.)

And you really need to think about buying a condo. 1.) HOA’s are a landmine – do you know how well funded it is? How many owners are no longer paying? The possibility of a “special assessment” for thousands, possibly even tens of thousands?
[/quote]
This CAN be true but really bears investigation. If you make an offer and it gets accepted, your buyer’s agent should be obtaining documentation about this within the first week of escrow. If the numbers do not work, then you should walk. The listing agent should be forthcoming about special assessments, regular assessment changes (aka HOA dues), delinquencies, foreclosures and other issues that could effect property value. If your agent, or the listing agent cannot perform, you should consider walking. A reserve study is a cpa’s estimation of how fiscally healthy the hoa is. You should ask for one completed in the last 12 months.

[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
2.) Condos do not hold value or increase in value like SFR’s do. Long-term not as good an investment. Yes, it’s cheaper now but if SFR’s drop and become more affordable do you really want to be stuck in a condo.[/quote]
Generally, this is only partly true. During the boom, the condos increased by a greater percentage than most sfr’s. This is not a hard and fast rule but a good example is the graph that our blogmaster posts showing different tiers of properties. You will notice that the cheapest properties increased (percentage-wise anyhow) the most. Condos typically are the cheapest of the cheap properties (again not always a rule). The preference issue that Bear raises may be legitimate but I personally prefer condos and urban areas(hence my handle). I have lots of friends-and clients-who feel the same.
[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
3.) Rent a condo in the complex you are looking at – you might find have people all around you a bit of a culture shock after your own (granted tiny) home.
[/quote]
That is a very good idea. Always do that.
Here is a good link for tenants to avoid getting screwed. http://www.dca.ca.gov/publications/landlordbook/index.shtml
[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
Hope that helps and best of luck![/quote]

[urbanrealtor]

Bear makes some good points regarding caution.
I do not entirely agree and will respond based on my experiences (mostly condos).

[quote=San Diego RE Bear]I recommend waiting too. This is going to be a very interesting year as the Option, Alt-A and Prime ARMs start adjusting in earnest and the high end begins to fall. My guess is that in the next six months the banks start capitulating and pricing the foreclosures in a more realistic manner. (Or at least start releasing the darn things.)

And you really need to think about buying a condo. 1.) HOA’s are a landmine – do you know how well funded it is? How many owners are no longer paying? The possibility of a “special assessment” for thousands, possibly even tens of thousands?
[/quote]
This CAN be true but really bears investigation. If you make an offer and it gets accepted, your buyer’s agent should be obtaining documentation about this within the first week of escrow. If the numbers do not work, then you should walk. The listing agent should be forthcoming about special assessments, regular assessment changes (aka HOA dues), delinquencies, foreclosures and other issues that could effect property value. If your agent, or the listing agent cannot perform, you should consider walking. A reserve study is a cpa’s estimation of how fiscally healthy the hoa is. You should ask for one completed in the last 12 months.

[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
2.) Condos do not hold value or increase in value like SFR’s do. Long-term not as good an investment. Yes, it’s cheaper now but if SFR’s drop and become more affordable do you really want to be stuck in a condo.[/quote]
Generally, this is only partly true. During the boom, the condos increased by a greater percentage than most sfr’s. This is not a hard and fast rule but a good example is the graph that our blogmaster posts showing different tiers of properties. You will notice that the cheapest properties increased (percentage-wise anyhow) the most. Condos typically are the cheapest of the cheap properties (again not always a rule). The preference issue that Bear raises may be legitimate but I personally prefer condos and urban areas(hence my handle). I have lots of friends-and clients-who feel the same.
[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
3.) Rent a condo in the complex you are looking at – you might find have people all around you a bit of a culture shock after your own (granted tiny) home.
[/quote]
That is a very good idea. Always do that.
Here is a good link for tenants to avoid getting screwed. http://www.dca.ca.gov/publications/landlordbook/index.shtml
[quote=San Diego RE Bear]
Hope that helps and best of luck![/quote]

[Author]

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