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urbanrealtor
Participant[quote=sdcellar]Sorry, but I don’t think it’s gotten *that* much nicer in the last 10 years. Cheap money is the significant driver.[/quote]
No.
There has been a national shift in housing preference.
But that preference does not translate into demand.
The cheap money you reference does.
But the reason people spend $400,000 (which seems like a lot of money to me) on a 2br/1ba place in South Park when they could buy a 4br/2ba house in Santee is preference.Lots of people who come here really have a jones for urban living.
See, that why I’m *urban* realtor with the condos and the walking….and the stuff…
Participant[quote=sdcellar]jpinpb– Exactly. You won’t hear me suggest San Diego hasn’t been expensive relative to rest of the country for at least as long as I’ve lived here (1978), but that wasn’t my point.
I was talking about this area relative to itself. Hell, this property relative to itself. It was $237 sq/ft. in 2000. By 2004 (a supposedly frothy time in the market, so I’ve been told), it was $502. And if it sells for what everybody seems to think FMV is, it’ll be $558.[/quote]
That’s right.
I sold one a few blocks from their in 2007.
It has gain significantly since then.
Supply and demand vary significantly by neighborhood.
A cute, turn-key cottage off Juniper is not common and huge amount of people want them.The 500/sf range is relatively normal for that type of product.
At a broader level, I really see this as a national trend of cities becoming safer, more affluent, and more en vogue as time goes on.
15 years ago, Hillcrest was the only urban neighborhood widely seen as middle-class and safe in San Diego.
Now I have schoolteachers trying to buy in Sherman Heights.
Participant[quote=sdcellar]jpinpb– Exactly. You won’t hear me suggest San Diego hasn’t been expensive relative to rest of the country for at least as long as I’ve lived here (1978), but that wasn’t my point.
I was talking about this area relative to itself. Hell, this property relative to itself. It was $237 sq/ft. in 2000. By 2004 (a supposedly frothy time in the market, so I’ve been told), it was $502. And if it sells for what everybody seems to think FMV is, it’ll be $558.[/quote]
That’s right.
I sold one a few blocks from their in 2007.
It has gain significantly since then.
Supply and demand vary significantly by neighborhood.
A cute, turn-key cottage off Juniper is not common and huge amount of people want them.The 500/sf range is relatively normal for that type of product.
At a broader level, I really see this as a national trend of cities becoming safer, more affluent, and more en vogue as time goes on.
15 years ago, Hillcrest was the only urban neighborhood widely seen as middle-class and safe in San Diego.
Now I have schoolteachers trying to buy in Sherman Heights.
Participant[quote=sdcellar]jpinpb– Exactly. You won’t hear me suggest San Diego hasn’t been expensive relative to rest of the country for at least as long as I’ve lived here (1978), but that wasn’t my point.
I was talking about this area relative to itself. Hell, this property relative to itself. It was $237 sq/ft. in 2000. By 2004 (a supposedly frothy time in the market, so I’ve been told), it was $502. And if it sells for what everybody seems to think FMV is, it’ll be $558.[/quote]
That’s right.
I sold one a few blocks from their in 2007.
It has gain significantly since then.
Supply and demand vary significantly by neighborhood.
A cute, turn-key cottage off Juniper is not common and huge amount of people want them.The 500/sf range is relatively normal for that type of product.
At a broader level, I really see this as a national trend of cities becoming safer, more affluent, and more en vogue as time goes on.
15 years ago, Hillcrest was the only urban neighborhood widely seen as middle-class and safe in San Diego.
Now I have schoolteachers trying to buy in Sherman Heights.
Participant[quote=sdcellar]jpinpb– Exactly. You won’t hear me suggest San Diego hasn’t been expensive relative to rest of the country for at least as long as I’ve lived here (1978), but that wasn’t my point.
I was talking about this area relative to itself. Hell, this property relative to itself. It was $237 sq/ft. in 2000. By 2004 (a supposedly frothy time in the market, so I’ve been told), it was $502. And if it sells for what everybody seems to think FMV is, it’ll be $558.[/quote]
That’s right.
I sold one a few blocks from their in 2007.
It has gain significantly since then.
Supply and demand vary significantly by neighborhood.
A cute, turn-key cottage off Juniper is not common and huge amount of people want them.The 500/sf range is relatively normal for that type of product.
At a broader level, I really see this as a national trend of cities becoming safer, more affluent, and more en vogue as time goes on.
15 years ago, Hillcrest was the only urban neighborhood widely seen as middle-class and safe in San Diego.
Now I have schoolteachers trying to buy in Sherman Heights.
Participant[quote=sdcellar]jpinpb– Exactly. You won’t hear me suggest San Diego hasn’t been expensive relative to rest of the country for at least as long as I’ve lived here (1978), but that wasn’t my point.
I was talking about this area relative to itself. Hell, this property relative to itself. It was $237 sq/ft. in 2000. By 2004 (a supposedly frothy time in the market, so I’ve been told), it was $502. And if it sells for what everybody seems to think FMV is, it’ll be $558.[/quote]
That’s right.
I sold one a few blocks from their in 2007.
It has gain significantly since then.
Supply and demand vary significantly by neighborhood.
A cute, turn-key cottage off Juniper is not common and huge amount of people want them.The 500/sf range is relatively normal for that type of product.
At a broader level, I really see this as a national trend of cities becoming safer, more affluent, and more en vogue as time goes on.
15 years ago, Hillcrest was the only urban neighborhood widely seen as middle-class and safe in San Diego.
Now I have schoolteachers trying to buy in Sherman Heights.
Participant[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?
Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.
Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:
Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.
The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)
Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]
You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).
Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.
That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).
However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).
Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SNDThe bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.
The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.
If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.
As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.
My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.
I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.
I am saying that somebody will.
Participant[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?
Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.
Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:
Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.
The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)
Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]
You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).
Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.
That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).
However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).
Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SNDThe bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.
The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.
If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.
As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.
My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.
I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.
I am saying that somebody will.
Participant[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?
Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.
Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:
Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.
The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)
Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]
You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).
Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.
That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).
However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).
Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SNDThe bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.
The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.
If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.
As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.
My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.
I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.
I am saying that somebody will.
Participant[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?
Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.
Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:
Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.
The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)
Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]
You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).
Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.
That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).
However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).
Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SNDThe bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.
The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.
If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.
As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.
My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.
I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.
I am saying that somebody will.
Participant[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?
Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.
Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:
Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.
The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)
Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]
You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).
Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.
That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).
However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).
Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SNDThe bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.
The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.
If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.
As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.
My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.
I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.
I am saying that somebody will.
ParticipantAs someone who does pretty much all my business in that pocket, I think the asking range is spot-on.
The area of comparability is best bounded by 30th on the west, 805 on the east and northeast, 15 on the southeast, University on the north, and Ash on the south.
In that area, there have been 26 2br/1ba houses less than 1000 sqft on the market in the last 6 month.
Of those, 8 have closed escrow.
The mean closing price is about $425,000.
Here is a CMA:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1955407183&s=SND&t=SND&g=1Here are the listings in detail:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1323884317&s=SND&t=SNDAs a buyer’s agent I would try to knock the price down but that particular type of product in that area consistently sells in that range.
The property is neither over nor under based on current data.
Caveat:
Current data (stuff that has closed) does not include stuff that is about to close or is in escrow now.ParticipantAs someone who does pretty much all my business in that pocket, I think the asking range is spot-on.
The area of comparability is best bounded by 30th on the west, 805 on the east and northeast, 15 on the southeast, University on the north, and Ash on the south.
In that area, there have been 26 2br/1ba houses less than 1000 sqft on the market in the last 6 month.
Of those, 8 have closed escrow.
The mean closing price is about $425,000.
Here is a CMA:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1955407183&s=SND&t=SND&g=1Here are the listings in detail:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1323884317&s=SND&t=SNDAs a buyer’s agent I would try to knock the price down but that particular type of product in that area consistently sells in that range.
The property is neither over nor under based on current data.
Caveat:
Current data (stuff that has closed) does not include stuff that is about to close or is in escrow now.ParticipantAs someone who does pretty much all my business in that pocket, I think the asking range is spot-on.
The area of comparability is best bounded by 30th on the west, 805 on the east and northeast, 15 on the southeast, University on the north, and Ash on the south.
In that area, there have been 26 2br/1ba houses less than 1000 sqft on the market in the last 6 month.
Of those, 8 have closed escrow.
The mean closing price is about $425,000.
Here is a CMA:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1955407183&s=SND&t=SND&g=1Here are the listings in detail:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1323884317&s=SND&t=SNDAs a buyer’s agent I would try to knock the price down but that particular type of product in that area consistently sells in that range.
The property is neither over nor under based on current data.
Caveat:
Current data (stuff that has closed) does not include stuff that is about to close or is in escrow now. -
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